Natural Hazards and Earth System Science www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net 1561-8633 1684-9981 10 1 2010 10.5194/nhess-10-105-2010 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/105/2010/ http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/105/2010/nhess-10-105-2010.html http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/105/2010/nhess-10-105-2010.pdf 105 108 2010-01-18 <i>Brief communication</i> "Models for the exceedances of high thresholds over the precipitation daily totals in Athens, Greece" G. Tzavelas A. G. Paliatsos P. T. Nastos nastos@geol.uoa.gr Department of Statistical and Insurance Science, University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece General Department of Mathematics, Technological Education Institute of Piraeus, Athens, Greece Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Department of Geology and Geoenvironment, University of Athens, Athens, Greece Extreme precipitation events have significant environmental consequences because they may cause considerable damages to urban as well as rural areas. The aim of this work is to construct a threshold model which will describe the exceedances over a threshold for the daily precipitation totals over Athens, Greece. The data used are daily precipitation totals recorded at the National Observatory of Athens, for a 115-year period (1891–2005). <br><br> The generalized Pareto distribution is considered as the proper distribution for the study of the exceedances. The threshold of <i>u</i>=15.8 mm (10% upper limit) is used for the construction of the optimal return level function. Amanatidis, G. T., Paliatsos, A. G., Repapis, C. C., and Bartzis, J. C.: Decreasing precipitation trend at Marathon area, Greece, Int. J. Climatol., 13, 191–201, 1993. Coles, S.: An introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Verlag, New York, 2001. Davison, A. C. and Smith, R. L.: Models for exceedances over high thresholds (with discussion), J. Roy. Stat. Soc B Met., 52, 393–442, 1990. Feidas, H., Noulopoulou, Ch., Makrogiannis, T., and Bora-Senta, E.: Trend analysis of precipitation time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955–2001, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 87, 155–177, 2007. Gnedenko, B. V.: Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum d'un serie aleatoire, Ann. Math., 44, 423–453, 1943 (in French). Gumbel, E. J.: Statistics of extremes, Columbia University Press, New York, 1958. Houssos, E. E. and Bartzokas, A.: Extreme precipitation events in NW Greece, Adv. Geosci., 7, 91–96, 2006. IPCC: Model Evaluation, Chapter 8, in: Third IPCC Scientific Assessment Report, Working Group 1: "The Scientific Basis", 2001. IPCC: Regional Climate Projections, Chapter 11, in: Fourth IPCC Assessment Report, Contribution of Working Group 1: "The Physical Science Basis", 2007. Katsoulis, B. D. and Kambezidis, H. D.: Analysis of the long-term precipitation series at Athens, Greece, Climatic Change, 14, 263–290, 1989. Koukis, G. C. and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Greece, in: Geomorphological Hazards of Europe, edited by: C.&C Embleton, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 215–241, 1997. Metaxas, D. A., Philandras, C. M., Nastos, P. T., and Repapis, C. C.: Variability of precipitation pattern in Greece during the year, Fresen Environ. Bull., 8, 1–6, 1999. Nastos, P. T. and Zerefos, C. S.: On extreme daily precipitation totals at Athens, Greece, Adv. Geosci., 10, 59–66, 2007. Nastos, P. T. and Zerefos, C. S.: Decadal changes in extreme daily precipitation in Greece, Adv. Geosci., 16, 55–62, 2008. Nicolaidou, M. and Hadjichristou, E.: Recording and Assessment of Flood Damages in Greece and Cyprus, Diploma thesis, National Technical University, Athens, 1995 (in Greek). Paliatsos, A. G., Nastos, P. T., Tzavelas, G., and Panagiotakos, D. B.: Characteristics of precipitation in urban Athens area, from 1891 to 2000, Fresen Environ. Bull., 14, 422–428, 2005. Pawlowsky-Glahn, V., Tolosana-Delgado, R., and Egozcue, J. J.: Scale effect in hazard assessment – application to daily rainfall, Adv. Geosci., 2, 117–121, 2005. Pickands, J.: Statistical inference using extreme order statistics, Ann. Stat., 3, 119–131, 1975. Pnevmatikos, J. D. and Katsoulis, B. D.: The changing rainfall regime in Greece and its impact on climatological means, Meteorol. Appl., 13, 331–345, 2006. Repapis, C. C.: Temporal fluctuations of precipitation in Greece, Riv. Meteorol. Aeronau., XLVI, 1–2, 19–25, 1986.