Natural Hazards and Earth System Science www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net 1561-8633 1684-9981 10 7 2010 10.5194/nhess-10-1647-2010 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/1647/2010/ http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/1647/2010/nhess-10-1647-2010.html http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/1647/2010/nhess-10-1647-2010.pdf 1647 1661 2010-07-30 Climate change assessment for Mediterranean agricultural areas by statistical downscaling L. Palatella M. M. Miglietta m.miglietta@isac.cnr.it P. Paradisi P. Lionello ISAC-CNR, Strada Prov. Lecce-Monteroni km 1, 200, 73100, Lecce, Italy Dipartimento di Scienze dei Materiali – Università del Salento, Strada Prov. Lecce-Monteroni km 1, 200, 73100, Lecce, Italy In this paper we produce projections of seasonal precipitation for four Mediterranean areas: Apulia region (Italy), Ebro river basin (Spain), Po valley (Italy) and Antalya province (Turkey). We performed the statistical downscaling using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in two versions: in one case Principal Component Analysis (PCA) filter is applied only to predictor and in the other to both predictor and predictand. After performing a validation test, CCA after PCA filter on both predictor and predictand has been chosen. Sea level pressure (SLP) is used as predictor. Downscaling has been carried out for the scenarios A2 and B2 on the basis of three GCM's: the CCCma-GCM2, the Csiro-MK2 and HadCM3. Three consecutive 30-year periods have been considered. For Summer precipitation in Apulia region we also use the 500 hPa temperature (T500) as predictor, obtaining comparable results. Results show different climate change signals in the four areas and confirm the need of an analysis that is capable of resolving internal differences within the Mediterranean region. The most robust signal is the reduction of Summer precipitation in the Ebro river basin. 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