Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 2039-2050, 2010
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/2039/2010/
doi:10.5194/nhess-10-2039-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
 
05 Oct 2010
Temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area: trends in the past and assessments for the future
E. Hertig, S. Seubert, and J. Jacobeit Institute for Geography, University of Augsburg, Germany
Abstract. Trends of Mediterranean extreme temperatures are analysed for the period 1961–1990 based on daily station time series. Increases can be identified in the western Mediterranean area, whereas an opposite trend becomes apparent for the eastern Mediterranean region. Assessments of the 95th percentile of maximum temperatures in summer and of the 5th percentile of minimum temperatures in winter for the 21st century under enhanced greenhouse warming conditions are performed by means of statistical downscaling techniques. Mainly increases of both extreme indices result from these assessments, but considerable differences arise when using different predictors or predictor combinations, respectively. Furthermore, the results give strong indications that changes in temperature extremes do not follow a simple shift of the whole temperature distribution to higher values.

Citation: Hertig, E., Seubert, S., and Jacobeit, J.: Temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area: trends in the past and assessments for the future, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 2039-2050, doi:10.5194/nhess-10-2039-2010, 2010.
Publications Copernicus
Download
Share