Natural Hazards and Earth System Science www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net 1561-8633 1684-9981 10 2 2010 10.5194/nhess-10-299-2010 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/299/2010/ http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/299/2010/nhess-10-299-2010.html http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/299/2010/nhess-10-299-2010.pdf 299 304 2010-02-17 About climate-seismicity coupling from correlation analysis O. Molchanov olmolchanov@mail.ru Institute of the Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Bolshaya Gruzinskaya 10, 123995 Moscow, Russia We have analyzed together the slow climate temperature variations in the near-equatorial Pacific Ocean area (SSTOI indices) and crustal seismic activity in the same region during 1973–2008 time period using correlation analysis and found similarity in seismic and ENSO periodicities (the latter with time lag about 1.5 years). Trends of the processes are also similar showing about 2 times increase in average seismic energy release during the whole period of analysis and conventional 0.1 °C/(10 years) increase in SSTOI index anomalies. Our major conclusion is on real credibility of climate-seismicity coupling. It is rather probable that at least partially climate ENSO oscillations and temperature anomaly trends are induced by similar variation in seismicity. Hegerl, G C., Zwiers, F. W., Braconnot, P., et al.: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge Univ. Press, ch 9, 1–14, 2007. Kanamori, H. and Anderson, D.: Theoretical basis of some empirical relations in seismology, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 65, 1073–95, 1975. Molchanov, O. A. and Aken'tieva, O. S.: Upward Motion of Earthquake Hypocenters in the Wadati-Benioff Seismic Zones, Russian Academy Reports, 419, 473–476, 2008. Molchanov, O. A. and Uyeda, S.: Upward migration of earthquake hypocenters in Japan, Kurile-Kamchatka and Sunda subduction zones, Phys. Chem. Earth, 34, 423–430, 2009. Robock, A. and Oppenheimer, C. (Eds.): Volcanism and the Earth's Atmosphere, American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, Geophysical Monograph, 139, 360~pp., 2003. Schekotov, A. Yu., Molchanov, O. A., and Hayakawa, M.: A study of atmospheric influence from earthquake statistics, Phys. Chem. Earth, 31, 341–345, 2006. Smith, T. M. and Reynolds, R. W.: A Global Merged Land-Air-Sea Surface Temperature Reconstruction Based on Historical Observations (1880–1997), J. Climate, 18(12), 2021–2036, 2005. Soden, B. J. and Held, I. M.: An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models, J. Climate, 19(14), 3354–3360, 2005. Tsuruoka, H., Ohtake, M., and Sato, H.: Statistical test of the tidal triggering of earthquakes: contribution of the ocean tide loading effect, Geophys. J. Int., 122, 183–194, 1995.