Natural Hazards and Earth System Science www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net 1561-8633 1684-9981 10 2 2010 10.5194/nhess-10-339-2010 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/339/2010/ http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/339/2010/nhess-10-339-2010.html http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/339/2010/nhess-10-339-2010.pdf 339 352 2010-02-22 A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials H. Frey holger.frey@geo.uzh.ch W. Haeberli A. Linsbauer C. Huggel F. Paul Department of Geography, Universtity of Zurich, Switzerland In the course of glacier retreat, new glacier lakes can develop. As such lakes can be a source of natural hazards, strategies for predicting future glacier lake formation are important for an early planning of safety measures. In this article, a multi-level strategy for the identification of overdeepened parts of the glacier beds and, hence, sites with potential future lake formation, is presented. At the first two of the four levels of this strategy, glacier bed overdeepenings are estimated qualitatively and over large regions based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and digital glacier outlines. On level 3, more detailed and laborious models are applied for modeling the glacier bed topography over smaller regions; and on level 4, special situations must be investigated in-situ with detailed measurements such as geophysical soundings. The approaches of the strategy are validated using historical data from Trift Glacier, where a lake formed over the past decade. Scenarios of future glacier lakes are shown for the two test regions Aletsch and Bernina in the Swiss Alps. In the Bernina region, potential future lake outbursts are modeled, using a GIS-based hydrological flow routing model. As shown by a corresponding test, the ASTER GDEM and the SRTM DEM are both suitable to be used within the proposed strategy. Application of this strategy in other mountain regions of the world is therefore possible as well. Alean, J.: Ice avalanches: some empirical information about their formation and reach, J. Glaciol., 31, 324–333, 1985. Allen, S. K., Schneider, D., and Owens, I. F.: First approaches towards modelling glacial hazards in the Mount Cook region of New Zealand's Southern Alps, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 481–499, 2009. Augustinus, P.: Glacial valley cross-profile development: the influence of in situ rock stress and rock mass strength, with examples from the Southern Alps, New Zealand, Geomorphology, 14, 87–97, 1995. Ballantyne, C.: Paraglacial geomorphology, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 1935–2017, 2002. Benz, C.: Der würmeiszeitliche Rheingletscher-Maximalstand: Digitale Rekonstruktion, Modellierung und Analyse mit einem Geographischen Informationssystem, Ph.D. thesis, University of Zurich, 2003. Binder, D., Brückl, E., Roch, K., Behm, M., Schöner, W., and Hynek, B.: Determination of total ice volume and ice-thickness distribution of two glaciers in the Hohe Tauern region, Eastern Alps, from GPR data, Ann. Glaciol., 50, 71–79, 2009. Bolch, T., Buchroithner, M. F., Peters, J., Baessler, M., and Bajracharya, S.: Identification of glacier motion and potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Mt. Everest region/Nepal using spaceborne imagery, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 1329–1340, 2008. Chinn, T., Salinger, J., Fitzharris, B., and Willsman, A.: Glaciers and climate, Bulletin of the Federated Mountain Clubs of NZ, 171, 1–15, 2008. Clague, J. and Evans, S.: Formation and failure of natural dams in the Canadian Cordillera, Geological Survey of Canada Bulletin, 464, 35~pp., 1994. Clague, J. and Evans, S.: A review of catastrophic drainage of moraine-dammed lakes in British Columbia, Quarternary Sci. Rev., 19, 1763–1783, 2000. Costa, J. and Schuster, R.: The formation and failure of natural dams, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 7, 1054–1068, 1988. Evans, S. and Clague, J.: Recent climatic change and catastrophic geomorphic processes in moutnain environments, Geomorphology, 10, 107–128, 1994. Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Bauder, A., Funk, M., and Truffer, M.: A method to estimate the ice volume and ice-thickness distribution of alpine glaciers, J. Glaciol., 55, 1–9, 2009. Farr, T G., Rosen, P A., Caro, E., Crippen, R., Duren, R., Hensley, S., Kobrick, M., Paller, M., Rodriguez, E., Roth, L., Seal, D., Shaffer, S., Shimada, J., Umland, J., Werner, M., Oskin, M., Burbank, D., and Alsdorf, D.: The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Rev. Geophys., 45, 1–33, 2007. Fischer, L., Kääb, A., Huggel, C., and Noetzli, J.: Geology, glacier retreat and permafrost degradation as controlling factors of slope instabilities in a high-mountain rock wall: the Monte Rosa east face, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 761–772, 2006. Frey, H., Huggel, C., Paul, F., and Haeberli, W.: Automated detection of glacier lakes based on remote sensing in view of assessing associated hazard potentials, in: Proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on High Mountain Remote Sensing Cartography. Grazer Schriften der Geographie und Raumforschung, edited by: Kaufmann, V. and Sulzer, W., vol 45, in press, 2010. GCOS: Implementation plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in support of the UNFCCC, GCOS – 92, WMO, Geneva, 2004. Gruber, S. and Haeberli, W.: Permafrost in steep bedrock slopes and its temperature-related destabilization following climate change, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F02S18, \doi10.1029/2006JF000547, 2007. Haeberli, W.: Frequency and characteristics of glacier floods in the Swiss Alps, Ann. Glaciol., 4, 85–90, 1983. Haeberli, W.: Changing views on changing glaciers, in: The Darkening Peaks: Glacial Retreat in Scientific and Social Context, edited by: Orlove, B., Wiegandt, E., and Luckman, B., Berkeley: University of California Press, 2005. Haeberli, W. and Beniston, M.: Climate change and its impacts on glaciers and permafrost in the Alps, Ambio, 27, 258–265, 1998. Haeberli, W. and Hohmann, R.: Climate, Glaciers and Permafrost in the Swiss Alps 2050: Scenarios, Consequences and Recommendations, Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Permafrost 2008, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA, 2008. Haeberli, W. and Schweizer, J.: Rhonegletscher 1850: Eismechanische Überlegungen zu einem historischen Gletscherstand, Mitteilungen VAW/ETHZ, 94, 59–70, 1988. Haeberli, W., Rickenmann, D., Zimmermann, M., and Rösli, U.: Murgänge, in: Ursachenanalyse der Hochwasser 1987, Ergebisse der Untersuchungen, vol 4, Mitteilungen des Bundesamtes für Wasserwirtschaft, 77–88, 1991. Haeberli, W., Kääb, A., Mühll, D V., and Teysseire, P.: Prevention of outburst floods from periglacial lakes at Grubengletscher, Valais, Swiss Alps, J. Glaciol., 47, 111–122, 2001. Hayakawa, Y S., Oguchi, T., and Lin, Z.: Comparison of new and existing global digital elevation models: ASTER G-DEM and SRTM-3, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17404, \doi10.1029/2008GL035036, 2008. Hooke, R.: Positive feedbacks associated with erosion of glacial cirques and overdeepenings, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 103, 1104–1108, 1991. Hubbard, B., Heald, A., Reynolds, J., Quincey, D., Richardson, S., Luyo, M., Portilla, N., and Hambrey, M.: Impact of a rock avalanche on a moraine-dammed proglacial lake: Laguna Safuna Alta, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 30, 1251–1264, 2005. Huggel, C.: Recent extreme slope failures in glacial environments: effects of thermal perturbation, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 28, 1119–1130, \doi10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.06.007, 2009. Huggel, C., Kääb, A., Haeberli, W., Teysseire, P., and Paul, F.: Remote sensing based assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: a case study in the Swiss Alps, Can. Geotech. J., 39, 316–330, 2002. Huggel, C., Kääb, A., Haeberli, W., and Krummenacher, B.: Regional-scale GIS-models for assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: evaluation and application in the Swiss Alps, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 647–662, 2003. Huggel, C., Haeberli, W., Kääb, A., Bieri, D., and Richardson, F.: An assessment procedure for glacial hazards in the Swiss Alps, Can. Geotech. J., 41, 1068–1083, 2004. Hungr, O., Morgan, G C., and Kellerhals, P.: Quantitative analysis of debris hazards for design of remedial measures, Can. Geotech. J., 21, 663–677, 1984. Jouvet, G., Huss, M., Blatter, H., Picasso, M., and Rappaz, J.: Numerical simulation of Rhonegletscher from 1874 to 2100, J. Comput. Phys., 228, 6426–6439, 2009. Kääb, A. and Haeberli, W.: Evolution of a high-mountain thermokarst lake in the Swiss Alps, Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 33, 385–390, 2001. Kääb, A., Huggel, C., Fischer, L., Guex, S., Paul, F., Roer, I., Salzmann, N., Schlaefli, S., Schmutz, K., Schneider, D., Strozzi, T., and Weidmann, Y.: Remote sensing of glacier- and permafrost-related hazards in high mountains: an overview, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 527–554, 2005. Kershaw, J., Clague, J., and Evans, S.: Geomorphic and sedimentological signature of a two-phase outburst flood from moraine-dammed Queen Bess Lake, British Columbia, Canada, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 30, 1–25, 2005. Komori, J.: Recent expansions of glacial lakes in the Bhutan Himalayas, Quaternary International, 184, 177–186, 2008. Le Meur, E., Gerbaux, M., Schäfer, M., and Vincent, C.: Disappearance of an Alpine glacier over the 21st Century simulated from modeling its future surface mass balance, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 261, 367–374, 2007. Lemke, P., Ren, J., Alley, R., Allison, I., Carrasco, J., Flato, G., Fujii, Y., Kaser, G., Mote, P., Thomas, R., and Zhang, T.: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M., and Miller, H., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA 2007. Linsbauer, A., Paul, F., Hoelzle, M., Frey, H., and Haeberli, W.: The Swiss Alps Without Glaciers – A GIS-based Modelling Approach for Reconstruction of Glacier Beds, in: Geomorphometry 2009 Conference Proceedings, edited by: Purves, R., Gruber, S., Straumann, R., and Hengl, T., University of Zurich, Zurich, 243–247, prefixwww.geomorphometry.org, 2009. MacGregor, K., Anderson, R., Anderson, S., and Waddington, E.: Numerical simulations of glacial-valley longitudinal profile evolution, Geology, 28, 1031–1034, 2000. Maisch, M., Haeberli, W., Hoelzle, M., and Wenzel, J.: Occurrence of rocky and sedimentary glacier beds in the Swiss Alps as estimated from glacier-inventory data, Ann. Glaciol., 28, 231–235, 1999. O'Connor, J E., Hardison, J H., and Costa, J E.: Debris flows from failures of neoglacial-age moraine dams in the Three Sisters and Mount Jefferson wilderness areas, Oregon, USGS professional paper, 1606, 2001. Oerlemanns, J.: Glaciers and Climate Change, A.A. Balkema Publishers, ISBN 9026518137, 2001. Oppikofer, T., Jaboyedoff, M., and Keusen, H.-R.: Collapse at the eastern Eiger flank in the Swiss Alps, Nature Geosci., 1, 531–535, 2008. Paterson, W.: The physics of glaciers, Pergamon Press, Oxford, 3rd edn., 1994. Paul, F.: The New Swiss Glacier Inventory 2000 - Application of Remote Sensing and GIS. Schriftenreihe Physische Geographie, 52, Ph.D. thesis, University of Zurich, 2007. Paul, F. and Haeberli, W.: Spatial variability of glacier elevation changes in the Swiss Alps obtained from two digital elevation models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L21502, doi:10.1029/2008GL034718, 2008. Quincey, D., Richardson, S., Luckman, A., Lucas, R., Reynolds, J., Hambrey, M., and Glasser, N.: Early recognition of glacial lake hazards in the Himalaya using remote sensing datasets, Global Planet. Change, 56, 137–152, 2007. Raup, B., Racoviteanu, A., Khalsa, S., Helm, C., Armstrong, R., and Arnaud, Y.: The GLIMS geospatial glacier database: A new tool for studying glacier change, Global Planet. Change, 56, 101–110, 2007. Reynolds, J M.: On the formation of supraglacial lakes on debris-covered glaciers, in: Debris-Covered Glaciers. Proceedings of a workshop held at Seattle, Washington, USA, September 2000, edited by: Nakawo, M., Raymond, C., and Fountain, A., 153–161, IAHS Publication, 2000. Reynolds Geo-Science Ltd: Guidelines for the management of glacial hazards and risks, Reynolds Geo-Science Ltd, Mold, UK, 2003. Richardson, S. and Reynolds, J.: An overview of glacial hazards in the Himalayas, Quaternary Int., 65–66, 31–47, 2000a. Richardson, S D. and Reynolds, J M.: Degradation of ice-cored moraine dams: implications for hazard development, in: Debris-Covered Glaciers, edited by: Nakawo, M., Raymond, C. F., and Fountain, A., Proceedings of a workshop held at Seattle, Washington, USA, September 2000, Oxford, IAHS Publication, 2000b. Rothenbühler, C.: GISALP: Räumlich-zeitliche Modellierung der klimasensitiven Hochgebirgslandschaft des Oberengadins, Ph.D. thesis, University of Zurich, 2006. Swisstopo: DHM25 – The digital height model of Switzerland. Product information, prefixhttp://www.swisstopo.admin.ch/internet/swisstopo/en/home/prod% ucts/height/dhm25.html, 2004. Truffer, M., Motyka, R., Harrison, W., Echelmeyer, K., Fisk, B., and Tulaczyk, S.: Subglacial drilling at Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, USA: drilling method and sample descriptions, J. Glaciol., 45, 495–505, 1999. Watanabe, T., Ives, J., and Hammond, J.: Rapid growth of a glacial lake in Khumbu Himal, Himalaya: Prospects for a catastrophic flood, Mountain Research and Development, 14, 329–340, 1994. WGMS: Global Glacier Changes: facts and figures, edited by: Zemp, M., Roer, I., Kääb, A., Hoelzle, M., Paul, F., and Haeberli, W., UNEP, World Glacier Monitoring Service, Zurich, Switzerland, 2008. Zemp, M., Kääb, A., Hoelzle, M., and Haeberli, W.: GIS-Based modelling of glacial sediment balance, Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie N.F., 138, 113–129, 2005.