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www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/11/1657/2011/
doi:10.5194/nhess-11-1657-2011
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Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls through non-homogeneous Poissonian processes
Soil Conservation Department, University of Calabria, Rende (CS), Italy
Abstract. A stochastic model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process, characterised by a time-dependent intensity of rainfall occurrence, is employed to explain seasonal effects of daily rainfalls exceeding prefixed threshold values. The data modelling has been performed with a partition of observed daily rainfall data into a calibration period for parameter estimation and a validation period for checking on occurrence process changes. The model has been applied to a set of rain gauges located in different geographical areas of Southern Italy. The results show a good fit for time-varying intensity of rainfall occurrence process by 2-harmonic Fourier law and no statistically significant evidence of changes in the validation period for different threshold values.
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Citation: Sirangelo, B., Ferrari, E., and De Luca, D. L.: Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls through non-homogeneous Poissonian processes, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1657-1668, doi:10.5194/nhess-11-1657-2011, 2011. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager XML
