1Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisbon, Portugal
2Unidade de Geologia Marinha, LNEG, Amadora, Portugal
3Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
4Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
5Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, I.P., Lisbon, Portugal
Received: 06 Aug 2012 – Revised: 19 Nov 2012 – Accepted: 29 Nov 2012 – Published: 04 Jan 2013
Abstract. The Gulf of Cadiz, as part of the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary, is recognized as a potential source of big earthquakes and tsunamis that may affect the bordering countries, as occurred on 1 November 1755. Preparing for the future, Portugal is establishing a national tsunami warning system in which the threat caused by any large-magnitude earthquake in the area is estimated from a comprehensive database of scenarios. In this paper we summarize the knowledge about the active tectonics in the Gulf of Cadiz and integrate the available seismological information in order to propose the generation model of destructive tsunamis to be applied in tsunami warnings. The fault model derived is then used to estimate the recurrence of large earthquakes using the fault slip rates obtained by Cunha et al. (2012) from thin-sheet neotectonic modelling. Finally we evaluate the consistency of seismicity rates derived from historical and instrumental catalogues with the convergence rates between Eurasia and Nubia given by plate kinematic models.
Matias, L. M., Cunha, T., Annunziato, A., Baptista, M. A., and Carrilho, F.: Tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Gulf of Cadiz: fault model and recurrence, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1-13, doi:10.5194/nhess-13-1-2013, 2013.