Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 367-379, 2017
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/367/2017/
doi:10.5194/nhess-17-367-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
09 Mar 2017
Assessment of the ripple effects and spatial heterogeneity of total losses in the capital of China after a great catastrophic shock
Zhengtao Zhang1,3, Ning Li1,2,3, Wei Xie4, Yu Liu5, Jieling Feng1,3, Xi Chen1,3, and Li Liu1,3 1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing 100875, China
4China Center for Agricultural Policy, School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University, No. 5 Yiheyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100871, China
5Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 15 Zhongguancun Beiyitiao, Haidian District, Beijing 100190, China
Abstract. The total losses caused by natural disasters have spatial heterogeneity due to the different economic development levels inside the disaster-hit areas. This paper uses scenarios of direct economic loss to introduce the sectors' losses caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (2008 WCE) in Beijing, utilizing the Adaptive Regional Input–Output (ARIO) model and the Inter-regional ripple effect (IRRE) model. The purpose is to assess the ripple effects of indirect economic loss and spatial heterogeneity of both direct and indirect economic loss at the scale of the smallest administrative divisions of China (streets, villages, and towns). The results indicate that the district of Beijing with the most severe indirect economic loss is the Chaoyang District; the finance and insurance industry (15, see Table 1) of Chaowai Street suffers the most in the Chaoyang District, which is 1.46 times that of its direct economic loss. During 2008–2014, the average annual GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate of Beijing was decreased 3.63 % by the catastrophe. Compared with the 8 % of GDP growth rate target, the decreasing GDP growth rate is a significant and noticeable economic impact, and it can be efficiently mitigated by increasing rescue effort and by supporting the industries which are located in the seriously damaged regions.

Citation: Zhang, Z., Li, N., Xie, W., Liu, Y., Feng, J., Chen, X., and Liu, L.: Assessment of the ripple effects and spatial heterogeneity of total losses in the capital of China after a great catastrophic shock, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 367-379, doi:10.5194/nhess-17-367-2017, 2017.
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Short summary
This paper was the first to assess and analyze the ripple effects of indirect economic loss and spatial heterogeneity of both direct and indirect economic loss caused by a hypothetical earthquake, with the same magnitude as the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, in the disaster-hit area of Beijing at the scale of the smallest administrative divisions in China (streets, villages, and towns). The results will help the government better allocate rescue funds to the regions that may suffer serious damage.
This paper was the first to assess and analyze the ripple effects of indirect economic loss and...
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