Natural Hazards and Earth System Science www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net 1561-8633 1684-9981 3 6 2003 10.5194/nhess-3-777-2003 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/3/777/2003/ http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/3/777/2003/nhess-3-777-2003.html http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/3/777/2003/nhess-3-777-2003.pdf 777 780 0000-00-00 Analysis of natural neutron flux in a seismically active zone V. F. Ostapenko V. A. Krasnoperov Institute of Seismology, Almaty, Kazakhstan Suleyman Demirel University, Almaty, Kazakhstan In a seismically active zone in the near Almaty area (Kazakhstan) since 1996 observations of variations of a natural neutron flux have been conducted. Sometimes the neutron flux rises sharply within the one-hour interval in comparison with the background. It occurs on the eve of activation of seismic processes. Increase of the neutron flux level had taken place from 1 h to 10 days prior to earthquakes. It is also indicated a tendency of growth of the anomaly level in accordance with the growth of energetic class of the subsequent earthquake.</p> <p style="line-height: 20px;">A character of connection between the neutron flux and earthquakes is still not clear. It is proposed that the neutron flux anomalies caused by variations of cosmic radiation intensity under action of fluxes of solar material, which is burst into interplanetary space (solar wind) during solar flares. Energy of the solar wind transferred to Earth puts into action a trigger mechanism of the process of initiation of earthquakes at those places where conditions have already been prepared for them.</p> <p style="line-height: 20px;">The neutron flux anomalies can be used as substantial additional information for classical geophysical methods of short-term earthquake prediction.