Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 315-322, 2004
© Author(s) 2004. This work is licensed under the
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.
16 Apr 2004
Probabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe
C. Marsigli, A. Montani, F. Nerozzi, and T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy
Abstract. The limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS has been running operationally at ECMWF since November 2002. Five runs of the non-hydrostatic limited-area model Lokal Modell (LM) are available every day, nested on five selected members of three consecutive 12-h lagged ECMWF global ensembles. The limited-area ensemble forecasts range up to 120h and LM-based probabilistic products are disseminated to several national weather services. COSMO-LEPS has been constructed in order to have a probabilistic system with high resolution, focussing the attention on extreme events in regions with complex orography. In this paper, the performance of COSMO-LEPS for a heavy precipitation event that affected Central Europe in August 2002 has been examined. At the 4-day forecast range, the probability maps indicate the possibility of the overcoming of high precipitation thresholds (up to 150mm/24h) over the region actually affected by the flood. Furthermore, one out of the five ensemble members predicts 4 days ahead a precipitation structure very similar to the observed one.

Citation: Marsigli, C., Montani, A., Nerozzi, F., and Paccagnella, T.: Probabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 315-322, doi:10.5194/nhess-4-315-2004, 2004.
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