| Volumes and Issues Contents of Issue 6 |
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/5/1003/2005/
© Author(s) 2005. This work is licensed
under a Creative Commons License.
Modelling expected physical impacts and human casualties from explosive volcanic eruptions
1Department of Architecture, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
2Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
3Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, CNRS UMR 7154, Volcanology Group, Paris, France
Abstract. A multi-hazard, multi-vulnerability impact model has been developed for application to European volcanoes that could significantly damage human settlements. This impact model is based on volcanological analyses of the potential hazards and hazard intensities coupled with engineering analyses of the vulnerability to these hazards of residential buildings in four European locations threatened by explosive volcanic eruptions. For a given case study site, inputs to the model are population data, building characteristics, volcano scenarios as a series of hazard intensities, and scenarios such as the time of eruption or the percentage of the population which has been evacuated. Outputs are the rates of fatalities, seriously injured casualties, and destroyed buildings for a given scenario. These results are displayed in a GIS, thereby presenting risk maps which are easy to use for presenting to public officials, the media, and the public. Technical limitations of the model are discussed and future planned developments are considered. This work contributes to the EU-funded project EXPLORIS (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047).
Full Article (PDF, 2012 KB)
Citation: Spence, R. J. S., Kelman, I., Calogero, E., Toyos, G., Baxter, P. J., and Komorowski, J.-C.: Modelling expected physical impacts and human casualties from explosive volcanic eruptions, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 1003-1015, 2005. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager
