| Volumes and Issues Contents of Issue 4 Special Issue |
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/6/611/2006/
© Author(s) 2006. This work is licensed
under a Creative Commons License.
Rainfall downscaling and flood forecasting: a case study in the Mediterranean area
1CIMA, University of Genoa and University of Basilicata, Savona, Italy
2DIST, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy
3ISAC-CNR, Turin, Italy
Abstract. The prediction of the small-scale spatial-temporal pattern of intense rainfall events is crucial for flood risk assessment in small catchments and urban areas. In the absence of a full deterministic modelling of small-scale rainfall, it is common practice to resort to the use of stochastic downscaling models to generate ensemble rainfall predictions to be used as inputs to rainfall-runoff models. In this work we present an application of a new spatial-temporal downscaling procedure, called RainFARM, to an intense precipitation event predicted by the limited-area meteorological model Lokal Model over north-west Italy. The uncertainty in flood prediction associated with the small unresolved scales of forecasted precipitation fields is evaluated by using an ensemble of downscaled fields to drive a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model.
Full Article (PDF, 450 KB)
Citation: Rebora, N., Ferraris, L., von Hardenberg, J., and Provenzale, A.: Rainfall downscaling and flood forecasting: a case study in the Mediterranean area, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 611-619, 2006. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager
