Natural Hazards and Earth System Science
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net
1561-8633
1684-9981
7
1
2007
10.5194/nhess-7-165-2007
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/7/165/2007/
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/7/165/2007/nhess-7-165-2007.html
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/7/165/2007/nhess-7-165-2007.pdf
165
175
2007-02-08
Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM
J. G. Pinto
jpinto@meteo.uni-koeln.de
E. L. Fröhlich
G. C. Leckebusch
U. Ulbrich
Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln, Germany
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Germany
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany
A simple storm loss model is applied to an ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM
simulations in order to estimate changes of insured loss potentials over
Europe in the 21st century. Losses are computed based on the daily maximum
wind speed for each grid point. The calibration of the loss model is
performed using wind data from the ERA40-Reanalysis and German loss data. The
obtained annual losses for the present climate conditions (20C, three
realisations) reproduce the statistical features of the historical insurance
loss data for Germany.
<br><br>
The climate change experiments correspond to the SRES-Scenarios A1B and A2,
and for each of them three realisations are considered. On average, insured
loss potentials increase for all analysed European regions at the end of the
21st century. Changes are largest for Germany and France, and lowest for
Portugal/Spain. Additionally, the spread between the single realisations is
large, ranging e.g. for Germany from −4% to +43% in terms of mean annual
loss. Moreover, almost all simulations show an increasing interannual
variability of storm damage. This assessment is even more pronounced if no
adaptation of building structure to climate change is considered. The
increased loss potentials are linked with enhanced values for the high
percentiles of surface wind maxima over Western and Central Europe, which in
turn are associated with an enhanced number and increased intensity of
extreme cyclones over the British Isles and the North Sea.
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