Natural Hazards and Earth System Science
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net
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2007
10.5194/nhess-7-607-2007
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/7/607/2007/
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/7/607/2007/nhess-7-607-2007.html
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/7/607/2007/nhess-7-607-2007.pdf
607
614
2007-10-19
A probabilistic approach for earthquake hazard assessment of the Province of Eskişehir, Turkey
A. Orhan
aorhan@ogu.edu.tr
E. Seyrek
H. Tosun
Eskişehir Osmangazi University, Department of Geological Eng., Eskişehir, Turkey
Eskişehir Osmangazi University, Department of Civil Engineering, Eskişehir, Turkey
The city of Eskişehir in inner-western Turkey has experienced a destructive
earthquake with <I>M<sub>s</sub></I>=6.4 in 1956 in addition to many events with
magnitudes greater than 5. It is located in a wide basin having young
sedimentary units and thick alluvium soils which also include liquefiable
sand materials. There is also an active fault passing beneath the city
center and the groundwater level is very close to the ground surface.
Approximately 600 thousand people are living in the province of Eskişehir.
Therefore, the city and its vicinity have a high risk, when earthquake
hazard is considered.
<br><br>
This paper summarizes the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which
was performed for the province of Eskişehir and introduces seismic hazard
maps produced by considering earthquakes with magnitude <I>M<sub>s</sub></I>≥4.0
occurred during the last 100-years and a seismic model composed of four
seismic sources. The results of PSHA show that the average peak ground
acceleration (PGA) for the city center is 0.40 g for 10 percent probability
of exceedance in 50 years, for rock site. The seismic hazard maps were
obtained by means of a program of Geographic Information System.
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