Natural Hazards and Earth System Science
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net
1561-8633
1684-9981
7
1
2007
10.5194/nhess-7-71-2007
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/7/71/2007/
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/7/71/2007/nhess-7-71-2007.html
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/7/71/2007/nhess-7-71-2007.pdf
71
87
2007-01-22
Possible impacts of climate change on freezing rain in south-central Canada using downscaled future climate scenarios
C. S. Cheng
shouquan.cheng@ec.gc.ca
H. Auld
G. Li
J. Klaassen
Q. Li
Meteorological Service of Canada Branch, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, Ontario, M3H 5T4, Canada
Freezing rain is a major atmospheric hazard in mid-latitude nations of the
globe. Among all Canadian hydrometeorological hazards, freezing rain is
associated with the highest damage costs per event. Using synoptic weather
typing to identify the occurrence of freezing rain events, this study
estimates changes in future freezing rain events under future climate
scenarios for south-central Canada. Synoptic weather typing consists of
principal components analysis, an average linkage clustering procedure
(i.e., a hierarchical agglomerative cluster method), and discriminant
function analysis (a nonhierarchical method). Meteorological data used in
the analysis included hourly surface observations from 15 selected weather
stations and six atmospheric levels of six-hourly National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) upper-air reanalysis weather variables for
the winter months (November–April) of 1958/59–2000/01. A statistical
downscaling method was used to downscale four general circulation model
(GCM) scenarios to the selected weather stations. Using downscaled
scenarios, discriminant function analysis was used to project the occurrence
of future weather types. The within-type frequency of future freezing rain
events is assumed to be directly proportional to the change in frequency of
future freezing rain-related weather types
<br><br>
The results showed that with warming temperatures in a future climate,
percentage increases in the occurrence of freezing rain events in the north
of the study area are likely to be greater than those in the south. By the
2050s, freezing rain events for the three colder months (December–February)
could increase by about 85% (95% confidence interval – CI: ±13%),
60% (95% CI: ±9%), and 40% (95% CI: ±6%) in northern Ontario, eastern Ontario (including Montreal, Quebec),
and southern Ontario, respectively. The increase by the 2080s could be even
greater: about 135% (95% CI: ±20%), 95% (95% CI: ±13%), and 45% (95% CI: ±9%). For the three warmer months
(November, March, April), the percentage increases in future freezing rain
events are projected to be much smaller with some areas showing either a
decrease or little change in frequency of freezing rain. On average,
northern Ontario could experience about 10% (95% CI: ±2%) and
20% (95% CI: ±4%) more freezing rain events by the 2050s and
2080s, respectively. However, future freezing rain events in southern
Ontario could decrease about 10% (95% CI: ±3%) and 15%
(95% CI: ±5%) by the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. In eastern
Ontario (including Montreal, Quebec), the frequency of future freezing rain
events is projected to remain the same as it is currently.
Allen, R. L. and Erickson, M. C.: AVN-based MOS precipitation type guidance for the United States, NWS Technical Procedures Bulletin No 476, NOAA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, 2001.
Allison, P. D.: Logistic Regression Using the SAS System: Theory and Application, Cary, NC, SAS Institute Inc., 1999.
Antolik, M. S.: An overview of the National Weather Service's centralized statistical quantitative precipitation forecasts, J. Hydrol., 239, 306–337, 2000.
Auld, H., MacIver, D., Klaassen, J., Comer, N., and Tugwood, B.: Atmospheric Hazards in Ontario, ACSD Science Assessment Series No 3 Meteorological Service of Canada, Toronto, Environment Canada, 2004.
Bárdossy, A.: Downscaling from GCMs to local climate through stochastic linkages, in: Climate Change, Uncertainty and Decision-Making, edited by: Paoli, G., NERAM, Waterloo, ON, 33–46, 1994.
Bass, B. and Brook, J. R.: Downscaling procedures as a tool for integration of multiple air issues, Environ. Monit. Assess., 46, 151–174, 1997.
Bernstein, B. C.: Regional and local influences on freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and ice pellet events, Wea. Forecast., 15, 485–507, 2000.
Berry Jr., F. A., Bollay, E., and Beers, N. R. (Eds.): Handbook of Meteorology, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1945.
Bocchieri, J. R.: The objective use of upper air soundings to specify precipitation type, Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 596–603, 1980.
Bourgouin, P.: A method to determine precipitation types, Wea. Forecast., 15, 583–592, 2000.
Boyce, A. J.: Mapping diversity: a comparative study of some numerical methods, in: Numerical Taxonomy, edited by: Cole, A. J., Academic Press, New York, 1–31, 1996.
Bürger, G.: Expanded downscaling for generating local weather scenarios, Clim. Res., 7, 111–128, 1996.
Carbone, G. J. and Bramante, P. D.: Translating monthly temperature from regional to local scale in the southeastern United States, Clim. Res., 5, 229–242, 1995.
Carrière, J. M., Lainard, C., Le Bot, C., and Robart, F.: A climatological study of surface freezing precipitation in Europe, Meteorol. Appl., 7, 220–238, 2000.
Carter, G. M., Dallavalle, J. P., and Glahn, H. R.: Statistical forecasts based on the National Meteorological Center's numerical weather prediction system, Weat. Forecast., 4, 401–412, 1989.
Cheng, C. S., Auld, H., Li, G., Klaassen, J., Tugwood, B., and Li, Q.: An automated synoptic typing procedure to predict freezing rain: An application to Ottawa, Ontario, Wea. Forecast., 19, 751–768, 2004.
Cheng, S. and Lam, K. C.: Synoptic typing and its application to the assessment of climatic impact on concentrations of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides in Hong Kong, Atmos. Environ., 34, 585–594, 2000.
Cortinas Jr., J. V.: A climatology of freezing rain in the Great Lakes Region of North America, Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 3574–3588, 2000.
Cortinas Jr., J. V., Brill, K. F., Baldwin, M. E.: Probabilistic forecasts of precipitation type, Preprints, 16th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Orlando, FL, AMS, 140–145, 2002.
Cortinas Jr., J. V., Bernstein, B. C., Robbins, C. C., and Strapp, J. W.: An analysis of freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and ice pellets across the United States and Canada: 1976–90, Wea. Forecast., 19, 377–390, 2004.
Czys, R. R., Scott, R. W., Tang, K. C., Przybylinski, R. W., and Sabones, M. E.: A physical based, nondimensional parameter for discriminating between locations of freezing rain and ice pellets, Wea. Forecast., 11, 591–597, 1996.
Davis, J. C.: Statistics and Data Analysis in Geology, 2nd Edition, New York, NY, John Wiley & Sons., 1986.
DeGaetano, A.: Delineation of mesoscale climate zones in the northeastern United States using a novel approach to cluster analysis, J Clim., 9, 1765–1782, 1996.
Delworth, T. L., Stouffer, R. J., Dixon, K. W., Spelman, M. J., Knutson, T. R., Broccoli, A. J., Kushner, P. J., and Wetherald, R. T.: Review of simulations of climate variability and change with the GFDL R30 coupled climate model, Clim. Dynam., 19, 555–574, 2002.
Dettinger, M. D., Cayan, D. R., Meyer, M. K., and Jeton, A. E.: Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River Basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900–2099, Clim. Change, 62, 283–317, 2004.
Dore, M. H. I.: Forecasting the conditional probabilities of natural disasters in Canada as a guide for disaster preparedness, Nat. Hazards, 28, 249–269, 2003.
Environment Canada: Ice Storm'98 – The Meteorological Event, Technical Report, Environment Canada – Ontario Region, 1998.
Environment Canada: CGCM RUNS FORCING: Equivalent CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations used in CCCma coupled global climate model simulations, http://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/data/cgcm/cgcm_forcing.shtml, accessed November 2005.
Forbes, G. S., Anthes, R. A., Thomson, D. W.: Synoptic and mesoscale aspects of an Appalachian ice storm associated with cold-air damming, Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 564–591, 1987.
Gay, D. A. and Davis, R. E.: Freezing rain and sleet climatology of the southeastern USA, Clim. Res., 3, 209–220, 1993.
Glahn, H. R. and Lowry, D. A.: The use of model output statistics (MOS) in objective weather forecasting, J. Appl. Meteorol., 11, 1203–1211, 1972.
Grotch, S. L. and MacCracken, M. C.: The use of general circulation models to predict regional climatic change, J. Clim., 4, 286–303, 1991.
Hayhoe, K., Cayanc, D., Field, C. B., Frumhoff, P. C., Maurer, E. P., Miller, N. L., Moser, S. C., Schneider, S. H., Cahill, K. N., Cleland, E. E., Dale, L., Drapek, R., Hanemann, M.R., Kalkstein, L. S., Lenihan, J., Lunch, C. K., Neilson, R. P., Sheridan, S. C., and Verville, J. H.: Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101, 12 422–12 427, 2004.
Hewitson, B. C. and Crane, R. G.: Large-scale atmospheric controls on local precipitation in Tropical Mexico, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 1835–1838, 1992.
Hewitson, B. C. and Crane, R. G.: Climate downscaling: Techniques and application, Clim. Res., 7, 13–26, 1996.
Higuchi, K., Yuen, C. W., and Shabbar, A.: Ice Storm '98 in southcentral Canada and northeastern United States: A climatological perspective, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 66, 61–79, 2000.
Huffman, G. J. and Norman Jr., G. A.: The supercooled warm rain process and the specification of freezing precipitation, Mon. .Wea. Rev., 116, 2172–2182, 1988.
Huth, R.: Statistical downscaling in central Europe: Evaluation of methods and potential predictors, Clim. Res., 13, 91–101, 1999.
Huth, R., Neme\vsová, I., and Klimperová, N.: Weather categorization based on the average linkage clustering technique: An application to European mid-latitudes, Int. J. Climatol., 13, 817–835, 1993.
Jones, K. F. and Mulherin, N. D.: An evaluation of the severity of the January 1998 ice storm in Northern New England, Report for Federal Emergency Management Agency Region 1, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, 1998.
Kalkstein, L. S. and Corrigan, P.: A synoptic climatological approach for geographical analysis: Assessment of sulfur dioxide concentrations, Ann. Assoc. Amer. Geographers, 76, 381–395, 1986.
Keeter, K. K. and Cline, J. W.: The objective use of observed and forecast thickness values to predict precipitation type in North Carolina, Wea. Forecast., 6, 456–469, 1991.
Kettle, H. and Thompson, R.: Statistical downscaling in European mountains: Verification of reconstructed air temperature, Clim. Res., 26, 97–112, 2004.
Kim, J. W., Chang, J. T., Baker, N. L., Wilks, D. S., and Gates, W. L.: The statistical problem of climate inversion: Determination of the relationship between local and large-scale climate, Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 2069–2077, 1984.
Klaassen, J., Cheng, S. C., Auld, H., Li, Q., Ros, E., Geast, M., Li, G., and Lee, R.: Estimation of severe ice storms risks for south-central Canada. Technical Report, the Office of Critical Infrastructure Protection and Emergency Preparedness (OCIPEP), Canada, 2003.
Konrad, C. E. II.: An empirical approach for delineating fine scaled spatial patterns of freezing rain in the Appalachian region of the USA, Clim. Res., 10, 217–227, 1998.
Milton, J. and Bourque, A.: A climatological account of the January 1998 ice storm in Quebec, Scientific Report, Atmospheric Sciences and Environmental Issues Division, Environment Canada, Quebec Region, 1999.
Ontario Management Act: Legislative Assembly of Ontario: Bill 148 2002: An Act to provide for declarations of death in certain circumstances and to amend the Emergency Plans Act, http://www.ontla.on.ca/documents/Bills/37_Parliament/Session3/b148ra_e.htm, (accessed June 2006).
Penlap, E. K., Matulla, C., von Storch, H., and Kamga, F. M.: Downscaling of GCM scenarios to assess precipitation changes in the little rainy season (March–June) in Cameroon, Clim. Res., 26, 85–96, 2004.
Rauber, R. M., Ramamurthy, M. K., and Tokay, A.: Synoptic and mesoscale structure of a severe freezing rain event: The St. Valentine's Day ice storm, Wea. Forecast., 9, 183–208, 1994.
Rauber, R. M., Olthoff, L. S., and Ramamurthy, M. K.: The relative importance of warm rain and melting processes in freezing precipitation events, J. Appl. Meteor., 39, 1185–1195, 2000.
Rauber, R. M., Olthoff, L. S., Ramamurthy, M. K., Miller, D., and Kunkel, K. E.: A synoptic weather pattern and sounding-based climatology of freezing precipitation in the United States East of the Rocky Mountains, J. Appl. Meteorol., 40, 1724–1747, 2001.
Regan, M.: Canadian ice storm 1998, WMO Bull., 47, 250–256, 1998.
Robbins, C. C. and Cortinas Jr., J. V.: Local and synoptic environments associated with freezing rain in the contiguous United States, Wea. Forecast., 17, 47–65, 2002.
SAS Institute Inc.: SAS/STAT User's Guide, Version 8, 1999.
Schubert, S. and Henderson-Sellers, A.: A statistical model to downscale local daily temperature extremes from synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in the Australian region, Clim. Dyn., 13, 223–234, 1997.
Shen, S. S. P., Dzikowski , P., Li, G., and Griffith, D.: Interpolation of 1961–97 daily temperature and precipitation data onto Alberta polygons of ecodistrict and soil landscapes of Canada, J. Appl. Meteorol., 40, 2162–2177, 2001.
Stewart, R. E. and King, P.: Freezing precipitation in winter storms, Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1270–1279, 1987.
Strapp, J. W., Stuart, R. A., and Isaac, G. A.: A Canadian climatology of freezing precipitation, and a detailed study using data from St. John's, Newfoundland, Proceedings of FAA International Conference on Aircraft In-flight Icing, Springfield, Virginia, 6–8 May 1996, 45–56, 1996.
Stuart, R. A. and Isaac, G. A.: Freezing precipitation in Canada, Atmosphere-Ocean, 37, 87–102, 1999.
Vallée, M. and Wilson, L. J.: Updateable model output statistics: An effective tool for evaluation of NWP forecasts, Proceedings of the 19th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, San Antonio, Texas, 12–16 August 2002, American Meteorological Society, 97–100, 2002.
Vislocky, R. L. and Fritsch, J. M.: Improved Model Output Statistics forecasts through model consensus, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 76, 1157–1164, 1995.
von Storch, H., Zorita, E., and Cubasch, U.: Downscaling of global climate change estimates to regional scales: An application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime, J. Clim., 6, 1161–1171, 1993.
Wagner, J. A.: Mean temperature from 1000 MB to 500 MB as a predictor of precipitation type, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 38, 584–590, 1957.
Wigley, T. M. L., Jones, P. D., Briffa, K. R., and Smith, G.: Obtaining sub-grid-scale information from coarse-resolution general circulation model output, J. Geophy. Res., 95, 1943–1953, 1990.
Wilby, R. L., Dawson, C. W., and Barrow, E. M.: SDSM: A decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts, Environ. Modell. Software, 17, 147–159, 2002.
Wilby, R. L. and Wigley, T. M. L.: Downscaling general circulation model output: A review of methods and limitations, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 21, 530–548, 1997.