Natural Hazards and Earth System Science
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net
1561-8633
1684-9981
7
6
2007
10.5194/nhess-7-781-2007
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/7/781/2007/
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/7/781/2007/nhess-7-781-2007.html
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/7/781/2007/nhess-7-781-2007.pdf
781
792
2007-12-06
Influence of Specific Contributing Area algorithms on slope failure prediction in landslide modeling
J.-C. Huang
S.-J. Kao
sjkao@gate.sinica.edu.tw
M.-L. Hsu
Y.-A. Liu
Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Department of Geography, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research, National Central University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
This study anatomized algorithm effects of specific contributing area (SCA)
on soil wetness estimation, consequently landslide prediction, in SHALSTAB.
A subtropical mountainous catchment during three typhoon invasions is
targeted. The peak 2-day rainfall intensity of the three typhoons: Haitang,
Mindulle and Herb are 144, 248 and 327 mm/day, respectively. We use modified
success rate (MSR) to retrieve the most satisfying mean condition for model
parameters in SHALSTAB at three rainfall intensities and respective
pre-typhoon NDVI themes. Simulation indicates that algorithm affects the
prediction of landslide susceptibility (i.e. FS, Factor of Safety)
significantly.
<br><br>
Based on fixed NDVI and the mean condition, we simulate by using full scale
rainfall intensity from 0 to 1200 mm/day. Simulations show that predicted
unstable area coverage increases non-linearly as rainfall intensity
increases for all algorithms yet with different increasing trends. Compared
to Dinf, D8 always gives lower coverage of predicted unstable area during
three typhoons. By contrast, FD8 gives higher coverage areas. The absolute
difference (compared to Dinf) in predicted unstable area ranges from ~−3% to +4% (percent watershed area). The relative difference
(compared to Dinf) ranges from −15% to as high as +40%. The maximum
absolute and relative differences in unstable area prediction occur around
the condition of 100–300 mm/day, which is common in subtropical mountainous
region.
<br><br>
Theoretical relationship among slope, rainfall intensity, SCA and FS value
was derived in which FS values are very sensitive to algorithms in the field
of slope from 37 to 52degree. Results imply any comparison among SCA-related
landslide models or engineering application of rainfall return period
analysis must base on the same algorithm to obtain comparable results. This
study clarifies the SCA algorithm effect on FS prediction and deepens our
understanding on landslide modeling.
Barling, R. D., Moore, I. D., and Grayson, R. B.: A quasi-dynamic wetness index for characterizing the spatial distribution of zones of surface saturation and soil water content, Water Resour. Res., 30, 1029–1044, 1994.
Beven, K. and Kirkby, M. J.: A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology, Hydrol. Sci. Bull., 24, 43–69, 1979.
Bischetti, G. B., Chiaradia, E. A., Simonato, T., Speziali, B., Vitali, B., Vullo, P., and Zocco, A.: Root strength and root area ratio of forest species in Lombardy (Northern Italy), Plant Soil., 278, 11–22, 2005.
Borga, M., Dalla Fontana, G., Ros, D. D., and Marchi, L.: Shallow landslide hazard assessment using a physical based model and digital elevation data, Environ. Geol., 35, 81–88, 1998.
Borga, M., Dalla Fontana, G., and Cazorzi, F.: Analysis of topographic climatic control on rainfall-triggered shallow landsliding using a quasi-dynamic wetness index, J. Hydrol., 268, 56–71, 2002.
Burton, A. and Bathurst, J. C.: Physically based modeling of shallow landslide sediment yield at a catchment scale, Environ. Geol., 35, 89–99, 1998.
Casadei, M., Dietrich, W. E., and Miller, N. L.: Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil-mantled landscapes, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 28, 925–950, 2003.
Chen, S. C. and Wu, C. H.: Slope stabilization and landslide size on Mt. 99 peaks after ChiChi earthquake in Taiwan, Environ. Geol., 50(5), 623–636, 2006.
Chung, Y. Y.: Comparison on the characteristics of rainfall-induced landslide before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake. Master Thesis, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, 2005 (in Chinese).
Dietrich, W. E., Reiss, R., Hsu, M. L., and Montgomery, D. R.: A process-based model for colluvial soil depth and shallow landsliding using digital elevation data, Hydrol. Process., 9 383–400, 1995.
Dietrich, W. E. and Montgomery, D. R.: SHALSTAB: A digital terrain model for mapping shallow landslide potential, http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~geomorph/shalstab, 1998.
Duan, J. and Grant, G. E.: Shallow Landslide Delineation for Steep Forest Watersheds Based on Topographic Attributes and Probability Analysis, in: Terrain Analysis – principles and applications, edited by: Wilson, J. P. and Gallant, J. C., Wiley, 311–329, 2000.
Endreny, T. A. and Wood, E. F.: Maximizing spatial congruence of observed and DEM-delineated overland flow networks, Int. J. Geographic Inf. Sci., 17(7), 699–713, 2003.
Florinsky, I. V.: Accuracy of local topographic variables derived from digital elevation models, Int. J. Geographic Inf. Sci., 12, 47–61, 1998.
Freeman, G. T.: Calculating catchment area with divergent flow based on a regular grid, Comput. Geosci., 17, 413–422, 1991.
Freer, J. E., McMillan, H., McDonnell, J. J., and Bevev, K.: Constraining dynamic TOPMODEL responses for imprecise water table information using fuzzy rule based performance measures, J. Hydrol., 291(3–4), 254–277, 2004.
Gallant, J. C. and Wilson, J. P.: Primary Topographic Attributes, in: Terrain Analysis – principles and applications, edited by: Wilson, J. P. and Gallant, J. C., Wiley, 51–85, 2000.
Hammond, C. D., Hall, D., Miller, S., and Swetik ,P.: Level I Stability Analysis (LISA): Documentation for version 2.0. Ogden, UT: United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station General Technical Report No. 285, 1992.
Heuvelink, D.G.: Error propagation in quantitative spatial modeling: Application in GIS, PhD thesis, Utrecht University, Netherlands, 1993.
Holmgren, P.: Multiple flow direction algorithms for runoff modeling in grid-based elevation models: an empirical evaluation, Hydrol. Process., 8, 327–334, 1994.
Huang, J. C. and Kao, S. J.: Optimal estimator for measuring landslide model efficiency, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 957–965, 2006.
Huang, J. C., Kao, S. J., Hsu, M. L., and Lin, J. C.: Stochastic procedure to extract optimal input parameter combinations and to construct integrated landslide occurrence map: An example of mountainous watershed in Taiwan, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 803–815, 2006.
Huang, J. C., Lee, T. Y., and Kao, S. J.: Simulating typhoon-induced storm hydrographs in subtropical mountainous watershed: An integrated 3-layer TOPMODEL. Submitted to Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 2007.
Lea, N. J.: An aspect-driven kinematic routing algorithm, in: Overland Flow: Hydraulics and Erosion Mechanics, edited by: Parsons, A. J. and Abrahams, A. D., UCL Press, 393–407, 1992.
Lin, M. L. and Lu. Y. H.: Construction of GIS and Database for Debris Flow Potential Study of Chen-You-Lan River Watershed", Proceedings, the 17th International Symposium on Automation and Robotics in Construction, 645–650, 2000.
Lin, M. L. and Jeng, F. S.: Characteristics of hazards induced by extremely heavy rainfall in central Taiwan – Typhoon Herb, Eng. Geol., 58, 191–207, 2000.
Lindsay, J. B.: The Terrain Analysis System: A tool for hydro-geomorphic applications, Hydrol. Process., 19, 1123–1130, 2005.
Montgomery, D. R. and Dietrich, W. E.: A Physically-Based Model for the Topographic Control on Shallow Landsliding, Water Resour. Res., 30, 1153–1171, 1994.
O'Callaghan, J. F. and Mark, D. M.: The extraction of drainage networks from digital elevation data, Computer Vision, Graphics and Image Processing, 28, 323–344, 1984.
O'Loughlin, E. M.: Prediction of surface saturation zones in natural catchments by topographic analysis, Water Resour. Res., 22, 794–804, 1986.
Pack, R. T., Tarboton, D. G., and Goodwin, C. N.: The SINMAP Approach to Terrain Stability Mapping, Congress of the International Association of Engineering Geology, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada 21–25 September, 1998.
Quinn, P. F., Beven, K. J., and Lamb, R.: The ln(a/tan$\beta )$ index: How to calculate it and how to use it within the topmodel framework, Hydrol. Process., 9(2), 161–182, 1995.
Rompaey, A. V., Bazzoffi, P., Jones, R. A. A., and Montanarella, L.: Modeling sediment yields in Italian catchments, Geomorphology, 65, 157–169, 2005.
Rosso, R., Rulli, M. C., and Vannucchi, G.: A physically based model for the hydrologic control on shallow landsliding, Water Resour. Res., 42, W06410, doi:10.1029/2005WR004369, 2006.
Schmidt, K. M., Roerinf, J. J., Stock, J. D., Dietrich, W. E., Montgomery, D. R., and Shaub, T.: Root cohesion variability and shallow landslides susceptibility in the Oregen Coast Range, Can. Geotech. J., 38(1), 995–1024, 2005.
Sorensen, R., Zinko, U., and Seibert, J.: On the calculation of the topographic wetness index: evaluation of different methods based on field observations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 101–112, 2006.
Tarboton, D. G.: A New Method for the Determination of Flow Directions and Contributing Areas in Grid Digital Elevation Models, Water Resour. Res., 33(2), 309–319, 1997.
Wilson, J. P., Repetto, P. L., and Snyder, R. D.: Effect of data source, grid resolution, and flow-routing method on computed topographic attributes. In Terrain Analysis – principles and applications, Wilson, J. P. and Gallant, J. C., Wiley, 133–161, 2000.
Wu, W. and Sidle, R. C.: A distributed slope stability model for steep forested basins, Water Resour. Res., 31, 2097–2110, 1995.
Zhou, Q. and Liu, X.: Error assessment of grid-based routing algorithms used in hydrological models, Int. J. Geographical Inf. Sci., 16, 819–842, 2002.