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www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/8/1259/2008/
doi:10.5194/nhess-8-1259-2008
© Author(s) 2008. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Social tension as precursor of large damaging earthquake: legend or reality?
Institute of the Physics of the Earth, Russian Acad. of Sci., Bolshaya Gruzinskaya 10, 123995, Moscow D-242, Russia
Abstract. Using case study of earthquake (EQ) activity and war conflicts in Caucasus during 1975–2002 time interval and correlation analysis of global distribution of damaging EQs and war-related social tension during 1901–2005 period we conclude:
- There is a statistically reliable increase of social tension several years (or several months in case study) before damaging EQs,
- There is evident decrease of social tension several years after damaging EQs, probably due to society consolidation,
- Preseismic effect is absent for the large EQs in unpopulated areas,
- There is some factual background for legendary belief in Almighty retribution for social abnormal behavior.
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Citation: Molchanov, O.: Social tension as precursor of large damaging earthquake: legend or reality?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 1259-1265, doi:10.5194/nhess-8-1259-2008, 2008. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager XML
