Natural Hazards and Earth System Science
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net
1561-8633
1684-9981
8
1
2008
10.5194/nhess-8-143-2008
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/8/143/2008/
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/8/143/2008/nhess-8-143-2008.html
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/8/143/2008/nhess-8-143-2008.pdf
143
159
2008-02-28
A meteo-hydrological prediction system based on a multi-model approach for precipitation forecasting
S. Davolio
s.davolio@isac.cnr.it
M. M. Miglietta
T. Diomede
C. Marsigli
A. Morgillo
A. Moscatello
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, ISAC-CNR, Lecce, Italy
Regional Hydro-Meteorological Service ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy
Centro Interuniversitario di Ricerca in Monitoraggio Ambientale (CIMA), Università degli studi di Genova e della Basilicata, Savona, Italy
The precipitation forecasted by a numerical weather prediction model, even
at high resolution, suffers from errors which can be considerable at the
scales of interest for hydrological purposes. In the present study, a
fraction of the uncertainty related to meteorological prediction is taken
into account by implementing a multi-model forecasting approach, aimed at
providing multiple precipitation scenarios driving the same hydrological
model. Therefore, the estimation of that uncertainty associated with the
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), conveyed by the multi-model
ensemble, can be exploited by the hydrological model, propagating the error
into the hydrological forecast.
<br><br>
The proposed meteo-hydrological forecasting system is implemented and tested
in a real-time configuration for several episodes of intense precipitation
affecting the Reno river basin, a medium-sized basin located in northern
Italy (Apennines). These episodes are associated with flood events of
different intensity and are representative of different meteorological
configurations responsible for severe weather affecting northern Apennines.
<br><br>
The simulation results show that the coupled system is promising in the
prediction of discharge peaks (both in terms of amount and timing) for
warning purposes. The ensemble hydrological forecasts provide a range of
possible flood scenarios that proved to be useful for the support of civil
protection authorities in their decision.
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