Natural Hazards and Earth System Science
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net
1561-8633
1684-9981
8
3
2008
10.5194/nhess-8-433-2008
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/8/433/2008/
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/8/433/2008/nhess-8-433-2008.html
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/8/433/2008/nhess-8-433-2008.pdf
433
443
2008-05-08
Validating numerical simulations of snow avalanches using dendrochronology: the Cerro Ventana event in Northern Patagonia, Argentina
A. Casteller
casteller@lab.cricyt.edu.ar
M. Christen
R. Villalba
H. Martínez
V. Stöckli
J. C. Leiva
P. Bartelt
Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales IANIGLA, CCT Mendoza, CONICET, C.C. 330, 5500 Mendoza, Argentina
WSL, Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Flüelastrasse 11, CH-7260 Davos Dorf, Switzerland
IDEPRN, Facultad de Ingeniería UNCuyo, CONICET, C.C. 405, 5500 Mendoza, Argentina
The damage caused by snow avalanches to property and human lives is
underestimated in many regions around the world, especially where this
natural hazard remains poorly documented. One such region is the Argentinean
Andes, where numerous settlements are threatened almost every winter by
large snow avalanches. On 1 September 2002, the largest tragedy in the
history of Argentinean mountaineering took place at Cerro Ventana, Northern
Patagonia: nine persons were killed and seven others injured by a snow
avalanche. In this paper, we combine both numerical modeling and
dendrochronological investigations to reconstruct this event. Using
information released by local governmental authorities and compiled in the
field, the avalanche event was numerically simulated using the avalanche
dynamics programs AVAL-1D and RAMMS. Avalanche characteristics, such as
extent and date were determined using dendrochronological techniques. Model
simulation results were compared with documentary and tree-ring evidences
for the 2002 event. Our results show a good agreement between the simulated
projection of the avalanche and its reconstructed extent using tree-ring
records. Differences between the observed and the simulated avalanche,
principally related to the snow height deposition in the run-out zone, are
mostly attributed to the low resolution of the digital elevation model used
to represent the valley topography. The main contributions of this study are
(1) to provide the first calibration of numerical avalanche models for the
Patagonian Andes and (2) to highlight the potential of <i>Nothofagus pumilio</i> tree-ring records to
reconstruct past snow-avalanche events in time and space. Future research
should focus on testing this combined approach in other forested regions of
the Andes.
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