Natural Hazards and Earth System Science www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net 1561-8633 1684-9981 8 4 2008 10.5194/nhess-8-905-2008 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/8/905/2008/ http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/8/905/2008/nhess-8-905-2008.html http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/8/905/2008/nhess-8-905-2008.pdf 905 918 2008-08-20 Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty S. Kopf s.kopf@jacobs-university.de M. Ha-Duong S. Hallegatte Jacobs University Bremen, Campus Ring 1, 28759 Bremen, Germany Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement, Jardin Tropical, 45bis avenue de la Belle Gabrielle, 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne, France Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 3 rue Michel-Ange, 75794 Paris, France Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie, Météo-France, 42 avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, France We describe a method to represent the results of climate simulation models with spatial analogues. An analogue to a city A is a city B whose climate today corresponds to A's simulated future climate. Climates were characterized and compared non-parametrically, using the 30-years distribution of three indicators: Aridity Index, Heating Degree Days and Cooling Degree Days. The level of correspondence (i.e. strength of analogy) was evaluated statistically with the two-samples Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, generalized to 3 dimensions. 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