Natural Hazards and Earth System Science www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net 1561-8633 1684-9981 9 6 2009 10.5194/nhess-9-1995-2009 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/1995/2009/ http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/1995/2009/nhess-9-1995-2009.html http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/1995/2009/nhess-9-1995-2009.pdf 1995 2007 2009-12-03 Inundation scenarios for flood damage evaluation in polder areas L. M. Bouwer laurens.bouwer@ivm.vu.nl P. Bubeck A. J. Wagtendonk J. C. J. H. Aerts Institute for Environmental Studies, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Spatial Information Laboratory, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands We present an approach for flood damage simulations through the creation of a comparatively large number of inundation scenarios for a polder area, using a high-resolution digital elevation model. In particular, the method could be used for detailed scenario studies of the impact of future socioeconomic and climatic developments on flood risks. The approach is applied to a case-study area in the south of the Netherlands along the river Meuse. The advantage of our approach is that a large number of potential flood events can be created relatively fast without hydrodynamical calculations, and that it can be applied to high-resolution elevation models and for large areas. The large number of flood scenarios and the high horizontal resolution reduces at least part of the uncertainties encountered in flood loss modelling. The approach with a low horizontal-resolution (100-m) for loss modelling results in an overestimation of losses by up to 22% for high density urban areas, and underestimation of 100% for infrastructure, compared to the high-resolution (25-m). 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