The 27 May 1937 catastrophic flow failure of gold tailings at Tlalpujahua, Michoacán, Mexico
Summary: On 27 May 1937, a voluminous flood caused the death of at least 300 people in the mining region of Tlalpujahua, Michoacán, central Mexico. The flood was triggered by the breaching of the impoundment of the Los Cedros tailings. The flood reached maximum speeds of ~25 m/s and deposited 1.5 x 10^6 m3 of material. The FLO-2D hydraulic model reproduced the breached flow (0.5 sediment concentration) with a maximum flow discharge of 8000 m3/sec and a total outflow volume of 2.5 x 106 m3.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1069-1085, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1069-2015, 2015
On a report that the 2012 M 6.0 earthquake in Italy was predicted after seeing an unusual cloud formation
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1061-1068, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1061-2015, 2015
Effects of soil settlement and deformed geometry on a historical structure
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1051-1059, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1051-2015, 2015
Site-specific to local-scale shallow landslides triggering zones assessment using TRIGRS
Summary: This manuscript defines a reliable methodology for shallow landslides triggering zones assessment at site-specific or local scales by using a well-established physically based model (TRIGRS-unsaturated) based on the calibration of the model at slope scale using soil hydrological behavior analyzed through a continuous field monitoring. Moreover, the paper analyzes the effects on triggering zones assessment of taking into account for different unit mapping of the slope soils of a studied area.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1025-1050, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1025-2015, 2015
Representing hydrodynamically important blocking features in coastal or riverine lidar topography
Summary: Many of the features that either block or channelize flooding are too narrow to represent in conventional hydrodynamic (water flow) models, which must work at wider grid scales. New methods have been developed for identifying important features and representing their effects on blocking or controlling flooding. These methods are automated so that a fine-resolution lidar digital terrain model can be easily processed to a coarser resolution while retaining narrow blocking features.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1011-1023, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1011-2015, 2015
A study on the use of planarity for quick identification of potential landslide hazard
Summary: This study focuses on identifying the geomorphological feature that controls the location of landslides. We propose generating eigenvalues from the axial orientation data that may tell ground characteristics. The preliminary landslide assessment using the proposed approach discriminates well the geomorphological feature between stable and unstable domains. Results are also useful in mapping the previous landslide inventory where the historical records of landslide incidents have vanished.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 997-1009, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-997-2015, 2015
Roads at risk: traffic detours from debris flows in southern Norway
Summary: In the past decades the importance of and reliance on all kinds of transport networks has grown extensively making them more vulnerable to any kind of hazard. The linear structure of road networks is especially sensitive to debris flows, a process frequently occurring in the mountainous area of Norway. The paper quantifies the functional risk associated with these processes. The results reveal that the costs related to route closures are strongly related to the information status of drivers.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 985-995, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-985-2015, 2015
Hail events across the Greater Metropolitan Severe Thunderstorm Warning Area
Summary: A climatological oriented geographic information system is used to model hail storm occurrence during 1989--2013 in the Greater Metropolitan Thunderstorm Warning Area of New South Wales, Australia. There was an average of 14.3 events per year, but a significant decreasing trend of hail frequency in recent years has been identified. Spatial models have established three main hail distribution patterns: the Sydney metropolitan, coastal area and strong topographic effect.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 973-984, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-973-2015, 2015
Assessing domestic water use habits for more effective water awareness campaigns during drought periods: a case study in Alicante, eastern Spain
Summary: The design of water awareness campaigns could benefit from knowledge on the specific characteristics of domestic water use. To contribute to these debates this paper investigates domestic water use in 450 households of 10 municipalities of drought prone Alicante (Spain). The survey suggests that awareness campaigns should revise on a regular basis their scope and their channels of diffusion. We propose policy-oriented recommendations on scope for action for further reductions.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 963-972, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-963-2015, 2015
Interdependence and dynamics of essential services in an extensive risk context: a case study in Montserrat, West Indies
Summary: There is a high degree of dependency between different critical infrastructures, which can pass on disruptions between interconnected sectors. This empirical study presents a new qualitative methodology for exploring the complexities of interdependent systems in a real-world context. We identify many different relationships across a network that transform in type and number when exposed to hazards, which add capacities to some sectors. This improves understanding of infrastructure resilience.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 947-961, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-947-2015, 2015
Construction and design defects in the residential buildings and observed earthquake damage types in Turkey
Summary: In this study, the general characteristics of Turkish building stock and the deficiencies observed in structural systems are explained, and illustrative figures are given with reference to the Turkish Earthquake Code 2007. The poor concrete quality, lack of lateral or transverse reinforcement in beam–column joints and column confinement zones, under-reinforced columns and over-reinforced beams are the primary causes of failures.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 931-945, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-931-2015, 2015
Levee reliability analyses for various flood return periods – a case study in southern Taiwan
Summary: For Chiuliao first levee, the slope sliding failure is the most likely mode to occur under all flood water level heights. However, the levee may undergo foundation sliding failure with a water level difference coefficient of 0.25 to 0.3 over a long flood return period. This is because of the high water levels and large local scouring depths. Therefore, the updated levee design cross section with rows of piles and thickened backfill material was designed to overcome possible failure modes.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 919-930, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-919-2015, 2015
Monitoring and prediction in early warning systems for rapid mass movements
Summary: This review paper describes the state of the art in monitoring and predicting rapid mass movements for early warning. It further presents recent innovations in observation technologies and modelling to be used in future early warning systems (EWS). Finally, the paper proposes avenues towards successful implementation of next-generation EWS.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 905-917, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, 2015
Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts
Summary: How can we use weather or climate forecasts to avoid disasters? This article offers a framework for determining when it is "worth" taking action to try to avoid a potential disaster. Considering forecast probabilities, actions, and funding constraints, we propose a novel forecast-based financing system that would automatically trigger action based on forecasts of increased risks.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 895-904, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-895-2015, 2015
Impact of rockfalls on protection measures: an experimental approach
Summary: The impact force is positively exponential to the weight of rockfall and the instantaneous impact velocity of the rockfall approaching the protection measures. The impact velocity is found to be dominated not only by the drop height but also by the shape of rockfall and the length of the platform on the slideway. A great drop height and/or a short platform produces a fast impact velocity. Spherical rockfalls experience a greater impact velocity than cubes and elongated cuboids.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 885-893, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-885-2015, 2015
Accuracy of velocities from repeated GPS measurements
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 875-884, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-875-2015, 2015
Group decision-making approach for flood vulnerability identification using the fuzzy VIKOR method
Summary: This study proposes an improved group decision making (GDM) framework that combines VIKOR method with data fuzzification to quantify the spatial flood vulnerability, including multiple criteria. The combination of the GDM approach with the fuzzy VIKOR method can provide robust prioritization because it actively reflects the opinions of various groups and considers uncertainty in the input data.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 863-874, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-863-2015, 2015
Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space–time-variable rainfall thresholds
Summary: We monitor and forecast (with lead times up to 48h) regional-scale landslide hazard with an early warning system (EWS) implemented on a user-friendly WebGIS interface. The EWS detects the most critical rainfall conditions using a mosaic of 25 site-specific thresholds. Moreover, when the rainfall paths recorded by the instruments are compared with the thresholds, the thresholds are shifted in the time axis and adjusted to all possible starting times until the most hazardous scenario is found.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 853-861, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-853-2015, 2015
Magnetotelluric investigation in the High Agri Valley (southern Apennine, Italy)
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 843-852, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-843-2015, 2015
The structure of disaster resilience: a framework for simulations and policy recommendations
Summary: Resilience to disaster is best understood as a multilevel process that involves individuals, families, NGOs, the private sector, and several layers of government. I describe this system, model it, and point out that it is currently uncoordinated. I then scour the literature on the economics of disaster for evidence of what works. I end by proposing a coordinated multilayer world system for disaster resilience and illustrate how it might work with examples of financial resilience to disaster.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 827-841, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-827-2015, 2015