A spatiotemporal optimization model for the evacuation of the population exposed to flood hazard
Summary: The importance of managing the crisis caused by floods requires the development of effective evacuation systems. An evacuation system must take into account certain constraints such as network traffic, accessibility and vulnerability. The main objective of this work is to provide assistance to technical services and rescue forces in terms of accessibility by offering itineraries relating to the rescue and evacuation of people and property. Evacuation plan must avoid congestion on road network.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 687-701, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-687-2015, 2015
Modelling rapid mass movements using the shallow water equations in Cartesian coordinates
Summary: Snow avalanches and debris flows are abundant natural hazards in mountainous regions. Numerical models describing rapid mass movements are essential for hazard studies and mitigation strategies, but only a few software tools are available for this purpose. This paper presents a new method using the shallow water equations widely applied to lakes and oceans. It introduces appropriate correction terms for steep terrain and can be implemented in a variety of fluid-dynamics software packages.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 671-685, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-671-2015, 2015
Simulating tsunami propagation in fjords with long-wave models
Summary: Tsunamis induced by rock slides constitute a severe hazard to coastal fjord communities. Fjords are narrow and rugged with steep slopes, and modeling the short-frequency and high-amplitude tsunamis in this environment is demanding. In the present paper, our ability to simulate tsunami propagation and run-up in fjords for typical wave characteristics of rock-slide-induced waves is demonstrated. The simulations are compared with unique lab test data for a fjord in 1:500 scale.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 657-669, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-657-2015, 2015
Debris flows in the eastern Italian Alps: seasonality and atmospheric circulation patterns
Summary: This study examines the seasonal and synoptic forcing patterns linked to debris flows occurring in the eastern Italian Alps. Results highlight that seasonal and synoptic pattern dependence is pronounced in both the debris-flow occurrence and the properties of triggering rainfall. Therefore, considering classification of debris flow events according to season and atmospheric circulation patterns can be used to improve existing warning systems that are operating on the basis of rainfall thresholds
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 647-656, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-647-2015, 2015
Estimation of three-dimensional crustal movements in the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake from TerraSAR-X intensity images
Summary: The method for capturing two-dimensional surface displacements was applied to three pairs of pre- and post-event high-resolution TerraSAR-X intensity images of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake taken in ascending and descending paths, and the results were used for estimating the actual three-dimensional movements. Compared with the GPS data at three ground-control stations, the estimation errors in the horizontal and vertical directions were less than 0.3 m in spite of the pixels size (1.25 m).
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 637-645, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-637-2015, 2015
Large-scale numerical modeling of hydro-acoustic waves generated by tsunamigenic earthquakes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 627-636, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-627-2015, 2015
Spatial distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index in Algeria
Summary: In the Mediterranean climate as well as in some tropical climates, such as in Algeria, a few rainy days account for a high percentage of the annual total precipitation. The contribution of very rainy days can be evaluated by means of the concentration index (CI) (Martin-Vide, 2004). The values of CI for 42 meteorological stations in Algeria, over the period 1970--2008, have been calculated; the highest values occurred in Biskra and in the southwest.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 617-625, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-617-2015, 2015
Developing a functional model for cities impacted by a natural hazard: application to a city affected by flooding
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 603-615, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-603-2015, 2015
Debris-flow forecasting at regional scale by combining susceptibility mapping and radar rainfall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 587-602, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-587-2015, 2015
Assessing drought cycles in SPI time series using a Fourier analysis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 571-585, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-571-2015, 2015
Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 557-570, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-557-2015, 2015
Hydrometeorological multi-model ensemble simulations of the 4 November 2011 flash flood event in Genoa, Italy, in the framework of the DRIHM project
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 537-555, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-537-2015, 2015
Long-term variability of storm surge frequency in the Venice Lagoon: an update thanks to 18th century sea level observations
Summary: Daily sea level data of the Venice Lagoon observed in the 18th century allow us to obtain a composite the time series of sea level anomalies relative to the mean sea level, spanning 1751--1769 and 1872--2004. From these data the frequency of remarkable storm surges is estimated. They appear to be more frequent in the second half of the 18th century than in the late 19th and 20th centuries. The historical flood on 4 November 1966 turns out to be the most severe during the entire period.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 527-535, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-527-2015, 2015
After the extreme flood in 2002: changes in preparedness, response and recovery of flood-affected residents in Germany between 2005 and 2011
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 505-526, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-505-2015, 2015
Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models
Summary: In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario and compared to the WATCH Forcing data set. Hydrological drought characteristics (duration and severity) were calculated on a global scale. It was found that both drought duration and severity will increase in multiple regions, which will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which urges water resources managers to timely design pro-active measures.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 487-504, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-487-2015, 2015
How useful and reliable are disaster databases in the context of climate and global change? A comparative case study analysis in Peru
Summary: Three different disaster databases are analyzed for detection of decadal spatiotemporal changes in the Andes of Peru. We find large variations in the disaster metrics depending on the database. We recommend that the type, method and source of documentation should be carefully evaluated for any analysis of disaster databases; reporting criteria should be improved and documentation efforts strengthened.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 475-485, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-475-2015, 2015
GIS modeling of seismic vulnerability of residential fabrics considering geotechnical, structural, social and physical distance indicators in Tehran using multi-criteria decision-making techniques
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 461-474, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-461-2015, 2015
Calibration of FARSITE simulator in northern Iranian forests
Summary: This work aimed to calibrate FARSITE simulator using a set of wildfires that occurred in north Iranian forests. Fire modeling showed a high potential for estimating spatial variability in fire spread and behavior of the case studies selected. This paper represents a first step in the application of fire spread modeling in northern Iran in wildfire risk monitoring and management. The methodology can be replicated in other Caspian ecosystems to characterize fire spread and behavior.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 443-459, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-443-2015, 2015
Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 429-442, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-429-2015, 2015
Linking local wildfire dynamics to pyroCb development
Summary: In this paper we have used remote sensing data to analyse the atypical dynamics of a wildfire in the Grose Valley of the Blue Mountains of New South Wales in November 2006. We show that these dynamics included fire channelling. We link the fire's dynamics to the formation of pyrocumulonimbus cloud in its plume. We have thus shown that prediction of pyroCb formation may be improved by understanding atypical fire behaviour.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 417-428, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-417-2015, 2015