Evaluation of forest fire models on a large observation database
Summary: A set of 80 Mediterranean fire cases is used as an observation database for model evaluation. Simulations are carried out with 4 different front velocity models. The results are compared with several error scoring methods. All simulations are performed as automatic first guesses with no tuning, as an operational use. Regardless of the quality of the input data, it is found that the models can be ranked based on their performance and that the most complex models outperform the more empirical one.
Regional debris flow susceptibility analysis in mountainous peri-urban areas through morphometric and land cover indicators
Summary: A method for assessing regional debris flow susceptibility at the watershed scale, based on an index composed of a morphometric indicator and a land cover indicator, is proposed and applied in 106 peri-urban mountainous watersheds in Bogota, Colombia. The indicator of debris flow susceptibility is obtained from readily available information common to most peri-urban mountainous areas and can be used to prioritise watersheds that can subsequently be subjected to detailed hazard analysis.
50-year return-period wet-snow load estimation based on weather station data for overhead line design in France
Summary: Historically, as far as wet-snow loads were concerned, overhead line design was often based on experience.
This article proposes a practical method to estimate the 90% confidence intervals of characteristic wet-snow loads based on meteorological data recorded at weather stations.
As there is only one value of the ice-class masses proposed by ISO 12494 in each confidence interval, characteristic loads can be easily expressed in terms of ISO ice classes.
Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling
S. A. Fraser, N. J. Wood, D. M. Johnston, G. S. Leonard, P. D. Greening, and T. Rossetto Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2975-2991, 2014 AbstractFull Article (PDF, 2170 KB)Discussion Paper (NHESSD)
17 Nov 2014
Towards predictive data-driven simulations of wildfire spread – Part I: Reduced-cost Ensemble Kalman Filter based on a Polynomial Chaos surrogate model for parameter estimation
Summary: This paper presents a data-driven wildfire simulator for forecasting wildfire spread scenarios at a reduced computational cost that is consistent with operational systems. A wildfire spread simulator combined with an ensemble-based data assimilation algorithm is indeed a promising approach to reduce uncertainties in the forecast location of the fire front and to introduce a paradigm shift in the wildfire emergency response.
Simulating lightning into the RAMS model: implementation and preliminary results
Summary: This paper shows the implementation of a simple model for simulating lightning into the RAMS model.
The methodology is applied to six case studies that occurred in central Italy and the results are verified against LINET observations.
Advantages and weaknesses of the methodology are discussed.
S. Federico, E. Avolio, M. Petracca, G. Panegrossi, P. Sanò, D. Casella, and S. Dietrich Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2933-2950, 2014 AbstractFull Article (PDF, 3217 KB)Discussion Paper (NHESSD)
07 Nov 2014
Quantification of basal friction for technical and silvicultural glide-snow avalanche mitigation measures
A catalog of high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859
Summary: This catalog contains 240 (8 extreme) high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859 in 3 severity classes. Validation with independent wind and damage data reveals that the most hazardous winter storms are captured, while too few moderate windstorms may be detected. We find evidence of high winter storm activity in the early and late 20th century compared to the mid-20th century in both damage and wind data. This indicates a covariability of hazard and related damages on decadal timescales.
A GIS-based model to estimate flood consequences and the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in urban areas
Summary: In this paper, the authors proposed a GIS (geographic information system) model in order to provide a direct and indirect estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk) in the emergency phase.
J. Mandel, S. Amram, J. D. Beezley, G. Kelman, A. K. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, B. H. Lynn, B. Regev, and M. Vejmelka Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2829-2845, 2014 AbstractFull Article (PDF, 5559 KB)Discussion Paper (NHESSD)Special Issue
31 Oct 2014
Reassessing flood frequency for the Sussex Ouse, Lewes: the inclusion of historical flood information since AD 1650