An interdisciplinary perspective on social and physical determinants of seismic risk
Summary: This study views seismic risk as a function of seismic hazard, population-building exposure, and demographic-socioeconomic vulnerability. Three statistical models are built to test determinants affecting disaster fatality at village scale; Poisson Regression is used to test the models in the case of 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. Research finding proves that seismic behavior and intensity, building fragility, vulnerable demographics and social inequality are imperative factors in the risk.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2173-2182, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2173-2015, 2015
Modeling the hydrodynamic interactions between the main channel and the floodplain at McCarran Ranch in the lower Truckee River, Nevada
Summary: This study applied the two-dimensional AdH (adaptive hydraulics) hydrodynamic model to a river reach to analyze flood hydraulics on complex floodplains. A detailed analysis of the floodwater dynamics was conducted using the modeling approach to examine the hydraulic linkage between the main channel and floodplains.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2161-2172, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2161-2015, 2015
Attributing trends in extremely hot days to changes in atmospheric dynamics
Summary: This paper presents a study of extremely hot days (EHDs) in Spain and their connection with atmospheric dynamics. In addition, this work proposes a method that allows the detection of trends in the frequency of extreme events and their attribution to changes in atmospheric dynamics characterized through circulation types (CTs). The main CT-driven EHDs are identified. The increase in the EHD appearance is linked to the increase of the extreme CTs; however this only partially explains the trends.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2143-2159, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2143-2015, 2015
A spatiotemporal multi-hazard exposure assessment based on property data
Summary: A spatially explicit object-based temporal assessment of buildings and citizens exposed to natural hazards in Austria is presented, including elements at risk of river flooding, torrential flooding, and snow avalanches. It is shown that the repeatedly stated assumption of increasing losses due to continued population growth and related increase in assets has to be opposed to the local development of building stock, which is spatially and temporally variable.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2127-2142, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2127-2015, 2015
An approach to reduce mapping errors in the production of landslide inventory maps
Summary: In this work, we present a new semi-automatic procedure to prepare landslide inventory maps that uses GIS applications and tools for the digitization of photo-interpreted data. Results show that the new semi-automatic procedure proves more efficient for the production of landslide inventories and results in the production of more accurate maps, compared to the manual procedure. The presented work has potential consequences for multiple applications of landslide studies.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2111-2126, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2111-2015, 2015
Evaluation of shallow landslide-triggering scenarios through a physically based approach: an example of application in the southern Messina area (northeastern Sicily, Italy)
Summary: The aim of this paper is to provide a useful approach for the evaluation of shallow landslide-triggering scenarios through numerical modeling. Since the numerical models are, in general, exceptionally demanding in terms of parameterization, and the required information often exceeds available data, this approach combines different methods for the definition of the input parameters of the model in such a way that it is applicable to different case studies, on the basis of the data availability.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2091-2109, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2091-2015, 2015
Soil geohazard mapping for improved asset management of UK local roads
Summary: The work presented represents a quantitative assessment of the impact of clay-related subsidence on the local road network of Lincolnshire, UK. It provides a methodology into how Lincolnshire County Council have used soil-related geohazard maps as a soil-informed maintenance strategy for maintaining their highway network. The research presented represents a component within the current UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) http://www.itrc.org.uk/.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2079-2090, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2079-2015, 2015
Recent trends in daily rainfall extremes over Montenegro (1951–2010)
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2069-2077, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2069-2015, 2015
Identification of traffic accident risk-prone areas under low-light conditions
Summary: The current paper intends to identify the impact of low-light conditions on traffic accidents in an urban area. Knowing the linear dependence and the spatial relation between the low light and the number of traffic accidents, as well as the consequences of their occurrence, enabled us to identify the areas of high road traffic accident risk.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2059-2068, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2059-2015, 2015
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden
Summary: A distribution-based scaling approach was developed and proven useful as a post-process to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs (i.e. precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) to facilitate the utilisation of climate projections in forest fire risk studies. The result showed reduction of bias in forcing data and an improved description of fire-risk-related indices. Concerning the future climate, southern Sweden is likely to become a more fire-prone region.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2037-2057, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015, 2015
Appraising the Early-est earthquake monitoring system for tsunami alerting at the Italian Candidate Tsunami Service Provider
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2019-2036, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2019-2015, 2015
Brief Communication: On the rapid and efficient monitoring results dissemination in landslide emergency scenarios: the Mont de La Saxe case study
Summary: Straightforward communication of monitoring results is of major importance in emergency scenarios relevant to large slope instabilities. Here we describe the communication strategy developed for the Mont de La Saxe case study, a large rockslide threatening La Palud and Entrèves hamlets in the Courmayeur municipality (Aosta Valley, Italy).
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2009-2017, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2009-2015, 2015
Tsunami response system for ports in Korea
Summary: In this study, a response system is set up at harbors against unexpected tsunami attacks. The response system may contribute to mitigate natural disasters and provide guidelines for future disaster prevention researches.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1999-2008, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1999-2015, 2015
Analysis of avalanche risk factors in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data in Switzerland
Summary: We present a spatiotemporal picture of winter backcountry usage in the Swiss Alps and compare this with the distribution of avalanche accidents. Critical avalanche danger conditions and an unfavorable snowpack (old snow problem) strongly increase the risk of winter backcountry recreationists to be involved in a severe avalanche accident. This explains why there are comparably more accidents in the inneralpine regions with less activity.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1985-1997, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1985-2015, 2015
Detailed quantification of delta subsidence, compaction and interaction with man-made structures: the case of the NCA airport, France
Summary: We used InSAR to measure the Var delta subsidence (with a 1-σ error of 0.25 mm/yr, what might be the best documented delta deformation) that includes the NCA airport platform, located on reclaimed lands. We found that subsidence affects that whole delta and is primarily caused by the compaction of the delta quaternary sedimentary wedge. On the NCA platform, the subsidence rate reaches up to 10 mm/yr and represents a serious threat as it overlooks the steep submarine slopes of the shelf break.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1973-1984, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1973-2015, 2015
Landscape analysis for multi-hazard prevention in Orco and Soana valleys, Northwest Italy
Summary: Due to the severe hazardous processes many lives have been lost in the area: at least 250 deaths have been recorded since the 18th century, accounting for 36 different dates/events. Many research topics remain to be developed, especially those concerning (a) the time period during which natural events of a given intensity may recur, and (b) the improvement of techniques and knowledge, at the highest possible detail and in relation to anthropogenic activities.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1963-1972, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1963-2015, 2015
Selective deposition response to aeolian–fluvial sediment supply in the desert braided channel of the upper Yellow River, China
Summary: Rivers flow through aeolian dunes and always adopt braided stream channels in response to aeolian and fluvial sediment supplies. Here our results indicate that these braided rivers are distinguished from coarser-grained thalweg beds and finer-grained bar or floodplain surfaces and develop a significant lateral selective deposition in bed sediment. The traditional downstream fining shows no significance in this braided channel, primarily due to aeolian sand supplies.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1955-1962, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1955-2015, 2015
The environmental balance of the Alta Val d'Agri: a contribution to the evaluation of the industrial risk and strategic sustainable development
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1941-1954, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1941-2015, 2015
Developing system robustness analysis for drought risk management: an application on a water supply reservoir
Summary: Current methods for drought risk management use water supply reliability as a key decision criterion. Drought robustness analysis, as developed in this paper, additionally provides insight into the full range of drought events and their impact on a system’s functioning. The approach is illustrated through a case study with a water supply reservoir and its users. Results demonstrate that reducing water demand may be a more robust solution than increasing water supply.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1933-1940, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1933-2015, 2015
Continental Portuguese Territory Flood Social Susceptibility Index
Summary: The combination of human exposure, extreme weather events and lack of adaptation strategies to cope with flood-related impacts can potentially increase losses not only on infrastructure but also on human lives. The main objective of this work was to develop a flood social susceptibility index for the continental Portuguese territory. The main results showed that the proposed index correctly identified populations less prepared to avoid flood effects or able to cope with them.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1921-1931, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1921-2015, 2015