Levee reliability analyses for various flood return periods – a case study in southern Taiwan
Summary: For Chiuliao first levee, the slope sliding failure is the most likely mode to occur under all flood water level heights. However, the levee may undergo foundation sliding failure with a water level difference coefficient of 0.25 to 0.3 over a long flood return period. This is because of the high water levels and large local scouring depths. Therefore, the updated levee design cross section with rows of piles and thickened backfill material was designed to overcome possible failure modes.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 919-930, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-919-2015, 2015
Monitoring and prediction in early warning systems for rapid mass movements
Summary: This review paper describes the state of the art in monitoring and predicting rapid mass movements for early warning. It further presents recent innovations in observation technologies and modelling to be used in future early warning systems (EWS). Finally, the paper proposes avenues towards successful implementation of next-generation EWS.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 905-917, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, 2015
Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts
Summary: How can we use weather or climate forecasts to avoid disasters? This article offers a framework for determining when it is "worth" taking action to try to avoid a potential disaster. Considering forecast probabilities, actions, and funding constraints, we propose a novel forecast-based financing system that would automatically trigger action based on forecasts of increased risks.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 895-904, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-895-2015, 2015
Impact of rockfalls on protection measures: an experimental approach
Summary: The impact force is positively exponential to the weight of rockfall and the instantaneous impact velocity of the rockfall approaching the protection measures. The impact velocity is found to be dominated not only by the drop height but also by the shape of rockfall and the length of the platform on the slideway. A great drop height and/or a short platform produces a fast impact velocity. Spherical rockfalls experience a greater impact velocity than cubes and elongated cuboids.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 885-893, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-885-2015, 2015
Accuracy of velocities from repeated GPS measurements
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 875-884, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-875-2015, 2015
Group decision-making approach for flood vulnerability identification using the fuzzy VIKOR method
Summary: This study proposes an improved group decision making (GDM) framework that combines VIKOR method with data fuzzification to quantify the spatial flood vulnerability, including multiple criteria. The combination of the GDM approach with the fuzzy VIKOR method can provide robust prioritization because it actively reflects the opinions of various groups and considers uncertainty in the input data.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 863-874, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-863-2015, 2015
Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space–time-variable rainfall thresholds
Summary: We monitor and forecast (with lead times up to 48h) regional-scale landslide hazard with an early warning system (EWS) implemented on a user-friendly WebGIS interface. The EWS detects the most critical rainfall conditions using a mosaic of 25 site-specific thresholds. Moreover, when the rainfall paths recorded by the instruments are compared with the thresholds, the thresholds are shifted in the time axis and adjusted to all possible starting times until the most hazardous scenario is found.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 853-861, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-853-2015, 2015
Magnetotelluric investigation in the High Agri Valley (southern Apennine, Italy)
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 843-852, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-843-2015, 2015
The structure of disaster resilience: a framework for simulations and policy recommendations
Summary: Resilience to disaster is best understood as a multilevel process that involves individuals, families, NGOs, the private sector, and several layers of government. I describe this system, model it, and point out that it is currently uncoordinated. I then scour the literature on the economics of disaster for evidence of what works. I end by proposing a coordinated multilayer world system for disaster resilience and illustrate how it might work with examples of financial resilience to disaster.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 827-841, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-827-2015, 2015
Analysis of changes in post-seismic landslide distribution and its effect on building reconstruction
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 817-825, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-817-2015, 2015
Field survey report and satellite image interpretation of the 2013 Super Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines
Summary: Super Typhoon Haiyan devastated the Eastern Visayas islands of the Philippines on 8 November 2013. The International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS) at Tohoku University in Sendai, Japan, deployed several teams for damage recognition, relief support and collaboration with regard to this event. In this paper, we summarize the rapid damage assessment from satellite imagery conducted days after the event and report on the inundation measurements and damage surveyed in the field.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 805-816, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-805-2015, 2015
Open space suitability analysis for emergency shelter after an earthquake
Summary: This paper presents an indicator method to rank public open spaces for emergency shelter using weighted qualitative indicators and a capacitated accessibility measure. The method is exemplified in a case study from Kathmandu, Nepal, using the mid-Nepal earthquake scenario with Mw 8.0, which would lead to huge building damages. The results indicate that Kathmandu faces a lack of suitable open spaces for immediate shelter inside the ring-road perimeter given the standards used in this study.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 789-803, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-789-2015, 2015
Comparison of storm damage functions and their performance
Summary: Winter storms are the most costly natural hazard for European residential property. Their costs can be assessed via damage functions relating storm intensity to loss. However, the heavy-tailed loss distribution and the high uncertainty pose difficulties for their application. We address these difficulties by comparing four empirical damage functions and providing model recommendations. In a broader context, we discuss the shape of the damage functions in the light of theoretical considerations.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 769-788, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-769-2015, 2015
Corrigendum to "Wind waves in the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study" published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2883–2897, 2014
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 767-767, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-767-2015, 2015
Secondary lahar hazard assessment for Villa la Angostura, Argentina, using Two-Phase-Titan modelling code during 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption
Summary: This paper shows the results of secondary lahar modelling in Villa La Angostura town (Neuquén-Argentina) based on the Two-Phase-Titan modelling computer code. Possible occurrence of secondary lahars that could reach the city was analysed. The procedure allowed simulation of the path of flows from Florencia, Las Piedritas and Colorado creeks, which are the most influential streams in Villa La Angostura. The output of the modelling is a valuable tool for city planning and risk management.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 757-766, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-757-2015, 2015
The role of diffraction effects in extreme run-up inundation at Okushiri Island due to 1993 tsunami
Summary: The 1993 Hokkaido tsunami brought about a maximum wave run-up of 31.7m. To reproduce the extreme run-up height, a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic model has been locally applied with open boundary conditions supplied in an offline manner by a three-dimensional hydrostatic model. The diffraction of the tsunami wave primarily by islands was found to result in the extreme run-up height as in the laboratory simulation.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 747-755, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-747-2015, 2015
A comparative assessment of two different debris flow propagation approaches – blind simulations on a real debris flow event
Summary: The performances of a mono-phase model and of a two-phase model have been evaluated carrying out a blind test. As a benchmark test the event that struck Sicily (2009) was chosen. Prediction accuracies have been evaluated determining statistical indicators and applying the ROC approach. For the simulated event the two-phase model is more accurate than the mono-phase one, though both models show limits when applied in a highly urbanized area, where some constrains cannot be properly reproduced.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 735-746, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-735-2015, 2015
Amalgamation in landslide maps: effects and automatic detection
Summary: We present how amalgamation (i.e. the mapping of several adjacent landslides as a single polygon) can distort results derived from landslide mapping. Errors on the total landslide volume and power-law exponent of the area–frequency distribution, resulting from amalgamation, may be up to 200 and 50%, respectively. We present an algorithm based on image and DEM analysis, for automatic identification of amalgamated polygons, allowing one to check and correct landslide inventories faster.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 723-733, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-723-2015, 2015
Multi-temporal LiDAR-DTMs as a tool for modelling a complex landslide: a case study in the Rotolon catchment (eastern Italian Alps)
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 715-722, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-715-2015, 2015
Flood warnings in coastal areas: how do experience and information influence responses to alert services?
Summary: This paper integrates quantitative and qualitative methodologies to analyze how the social and psychological patterns can influence flood warnings in coastal areas. We presented a case study located on the Adriatic Sea coast, where two complementary instruments, a siren and an alert via SMS, were implemented. Our results show how the contextualization of warnings can widely modify the effects of technical tools, providing complementary results to literature and suggesting new relations.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 703-714, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-703-2015, 2015