Forecast and projection in climate scenario of Mediterranean intense events: uncertainties and propagation on environment (the MEDUP project)
Forecast and projection in climate scenario of Mediterranean intense events: uncertainties and propagation on environment (the MEDUP project)
Editor(s): V. Ducrocq, P. Drobinski, D. Lambert, G. Molinie, and M.-C. Llasat
The purpose of the special issue is to give an overview of the results of the multidisciplinary research project MEDUP, which is a 3-year project funded by the ANR (French National Research Agency).

MEDUP deals with the quantification and identification of sources of uncertainties associated with the forecast and climate projection for Mediterranean high-impact weather events. The propagation of these uncertainties on the environment is also considered, as well as how they may combine with the intrinsic uncertainties of the vulnerability and risk analysis methods. An original feature of MEDUP is to address these questions at one and the same time for weather forecasting (from 3h up to 10 days forecast range, with a focus on shorter range), seasonal forecasting (from 1 month to 3 month range) and climate scenario simulations (from 1960 to 2050). MEDUP is also innovative in considering the whole uncertainty chain, from the atmospheric modelling of high-impact weather events to their consequences on the environment. The atmospheric modeling uncertainties will be thus propagated on the vulnerability of the hydrosystems taking into account the feedbacks of landuse/ land-cover changes and also interpreted in terms of economic losses, as well as in terms of consequences on individual decision making and risk management in the region. The MEDUP project lies within the framework of HyMeX, in developing modeling and forecasting tools which could be deployed during this 10-year program.

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11 Jun 2013
Stakeholders' issues for action during the warning process and the interpretation of forecasts' uncertainties
L. Créton-Cazanave and C. Lutoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1469–1479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1469-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1469-2013, 2013
27 Mar 2013
The influence of climate change on flood risks in France – first estimates and uncertainty analysis
P. Dumas, S. Hallegatte, P. Quintana-Seguì, and E. Martin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 809–821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-809-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-809-2013, 2013
06 Nov 2012
Evaluation of classical spatial-analysis schemes of extreme rainfall
D. Ceresetti, E. Ursu, J. Carreau, S. Anquetin, J. D. Creutin, L. Gardes, S. Girard, and G. Molinié
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3229–3240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3229-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3229-2012, 2012
01 Oct 2012
Uncertainty of lateral boundary conditions in a convection-permitting ensemble: a strategy of selection for Mediterranean heavy precipitation events
O. Nuissier, B. Joly, B. Vié, and V. Ducrocq
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2993–3011, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2993-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2993-2012, 2012
06 Sep 2012
Dynamical and statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: uncertainty assessment
M. Vrac, P. Drobinski, A. Merlo, M. Herrmann, C. Lavaysse, L. Li, and S. Somot
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2769–2784, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2769-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2769-2012, 2012
24 Aug 2012
Heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean: sensitivity to cloud physics parameterisation uncertainties
S. Fresnay, A. Hally, C. Garnaud, E. Richard, and D. Lambert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2671–2688, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2671-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2671-2012, 2012
21 Aug 2012
Hydro-meteorological evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system for Mediterranean heavy precipitating events
B. Vié, G. Molinié, O. Nuissier, B. Vincendon, V. Ducrocq, F. Bouttier, and E. Richard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2631–2645, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2631-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2631-2012, 2012
03 Aug 2012
Verification of ensemble forecasts of Mediterranean high-impact weather events against satellite observations
J.-P. Chaboureau, O. Nuissier, and C. Claud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2449–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2449-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2449-2012, 2012
25 Jul 2012
Seasonal forecast of French Mediterranean heavy precipitating events linked to weather regimes
J.-F. Guérémy, N. Laanaia, and J.-P. Céron
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2389–2398, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2389-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2389-2012, 2012
23 Mar 2012
A high resolution climatology of precipitation and deep convection over the Mediterranean region from operational satellite microwave data: development and application to the evaluation of model uncertainties
C. Claud, B. Alhammoud, B. M. Funatsu, C. Lebeaupin Brossier, J.-P. Chaboureau, K. Béranger, and P. Drobinski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 785–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-785-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-785-2012, 2012
19 Mar 2012
Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario
C. Lavaysse, M. Vrac, P. Drobinski, M. Lengaigne, and T. Vischel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 651–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-651-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-651-2012, 2012
24 Oct 2011
Impact of the use of a CO2 responsive land surface model in simulating the effect of climate change on the hydrology of French Mediterranean basins
S. Queguiner, E. Martin, S. Lafont, J.-C. Calvet, S. Faroux, and P. Quintana-Seguí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2803–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2803-2011,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2803-2011, 2011
19 Jul 2011
Representation of spatial and temporal variability of daily wind speed and of intense wind events over the Mediterranean Sea using dynamical downscaling: impact of the regional climate model configuration
M. Herrmann, S. Somot, S. Calmanti, C. Dubois, and F. Sevault
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1983–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1983-2011,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1983-2011, 2011
23 May 2011
Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting
B. Vincendon, V. Ducrocq, O. Nuissier, and B. Vié
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1529–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1529-2011,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1529-2011, 2011
29 Nov 2013
Preface: Forecast and projection in climate scenario of Mediterranean intense events: uncertainties and propagation on environment (the MEDUP project)
V. Ducrocq, P. Drobinski, D. Lambert, G. Molinié, and C. Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3043–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3043-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3043-2013, 2013
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