The aim of this paper is to evaluate the debris flow occurrence thresholds of the rainfall intensity-duration in the earthquake-affected areas of Sichuan province over the rainy seasons from 2012 to 2014. it is clear that radar-based rainfall estimate and threshold supplement the monitoring gap of EWS where rain gauge is scarce. A better understanding of relationship between rainfall and debris flow initiation can be enhanced by the radar with highly spatiotempral resolution. Hide

The objective of this research is to improve an index originally developed to assess physical consequences of a considered hazard, by including socio-economic characteristics of population information. Data from the French Census data and a survey on risk perception (questionnaires) were used to propose an index taking into account the three main phases of risk management: preparedness, crisis management and recovery. Hide

This study looks at the importance of coral reefs and sand dunes in protecting the coast against flooding by storms. Many reefs and dunes are being degraded by human activities, making coastal areas more vulnerable. A computer model is used to look at the effects of the reef and dune degradation on coastal flooding in Puerto Morelos, Mexico. Results show that the conservation of both the reef and dune is important to protect the coast and decrease infrastructure losses. Hide

We investigate the influence of uncertain identification of triggering instants on landslide early warning thresholds. Different realistic scenarios of landslide data retrieval are hypothesized to simulate uncertainty in triggering instants. Combined impacts of uncertainty respect to temporal discretization of data (hourly or daily) and criteria for singling-out rainfall events are assessed as well. Results show that thresholds can be significantly affected by these uncertainty sources. Hide

Large boulders have been found on platforms that conform the rocky coastline of Minorca Island (Balearic Islands), several tenths of meters from the edge of the cliff, up to 15 m above the sea level, and kilometres away from any inland escarpment. The age of the boulders, thedirection of imbrication and the estimation of run-up necessary for their placement, indicate dislodging and transport by North Africa tsunami waves that hit the coastline of Minorca. Hide

The paper presents a statistical analysis of socio-economic factors influencing vulnerability and exposure to severe weather. By means of statistical modelling, the risks of weather impacts can be predicted on very high spatial resolutions. Such model can serve as a basis for a broad range of tools or applications in emergency management and planning and thus might help to enhance resilience to severe weather. Hide

The infrequent coinciding of several hydrometeorological conditions common to the Western Boreal Plain, including low autumn soil moisture, modest snowpack, lack of spring precipitation, and high spring air temperatures and winds, ultimately led to the widespread Horse River Fire in May of 2016. Monitoring antecedent soil moisture would aid management strategies in producing of more accurate overwintered drought code calculations, providing early warning signals ahead of spring wildfire seasons. Hide

We developed fragility functions of aquaculture rafts and eelgrass based on damage data and numerical simulation of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami. These fragility functions explain damage characteristics of both items against tsunami flow velocity. By understanding these characteristics, damage estimation and loss assessment as well as marine/fishery disaster mitigation plan and management in other areas of the world from future tsunamis can be implemented. Hide

Global assessments of coastal flooding are based on the assumption that water propagation follows a bathtub pattern across the floodplain. Using a global model we find that this assumption can lead to overestimation of impacts, with an uncertainty range that can be of equal magnitude to uncertainties related to future sea-level rise. Our results highlight the importance of improving the representation of the spatial/temporal variation of water levels across floodplains of different landcover. Hide

Recently, landslides affecting pyroclastic covers of Campania Region induced victims and huge costs. Then, the development of Early Warning Systems represents a key issue for the area. However, the features of such soils make challenging the development of reliable predictive tools. The relevance of accounting for evaporative losses in slope hydrological balance regulating safety conditions is then discussed. To this aim, the landslide occurred in Nocera Inferiore in 2005 is used as test case. Hide

The study of a historical tornado that occurred about 100 years ago was motivated by the fact that rich photo material of the inflicted damage was available. It is important to rate especially strong tornadoes, because their number is in general low, and statistics of the frequency for such events and the subsequent risk assessment heavily rely on a sound data basis. We found out that the tornado reached intensity F4 on the Fujita Scale (maximum winds around 105 m/s) and caused 34 fatalities. Hide

In 2010 a sinkhole opened up in the urban area of Schmalkalden, Germany. Shear wave reflection seismic profiles were carried out around the sinkhole to investigate the reasons for the collapse. A strike-slip fault and a fracture network were identified that serve as fluid pathways for water leaching soluble rocks near the surface. The more complex the fault geometry and the more interaction between faults, the more fractures are generated and the more prone to sinkhole occurrence is the area. Hide

Flood risk estimates are characterised by significant uncertainties; accordingly, evaluating the reliability of such estimates (i.e. validating flood risk models) is crucial. Here, we discuss the state of art of flood risk models validation with the aim of identifying policy and research recommendations towards promoting more common practice of validation. The main conclusions from this review can be summarised as the need of higher quality data to perform validation and of benchmark solutions. Hide

42 % of India's landmass prone to landslides falls in North East Himalaya. One such majorly affected area is Chibo Pashyor located in Darjeeling Himalayas in the state of West Bengal, India. Early warning systems due to rainfall induced landslides has not yet been attempted in this region. This paper is an attempt towards the use of hydrological model which would be an initial step towards setting up of early warning system with an objective to protect human lives from rain-induced landslides. Hide

We proposed an integrated simulation including rainfall, landslides, and debris flows. In this simulation, the chain process is considered, and the potential effect or likely impact of compound disaster are also discussed on a watershed scale. Under extreme scenarios, the compound disaster becomes more series in our results and lead to increasing risk of stable water supply, isolated village effect, and other secondary disasters. A practical reference could be provided for further policy-making. Hide

This paper discusses how uncertainties resulting from lack of knowledge are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. Since every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of such uncertainties it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in Paper 2. Hide

Part 1 of this paper has discussed the uncertainties arising from gaps in knowledge or limited understanding of the processes involved in different natural hazard areas. These are the epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities. A conceptual framework for good practice in dealing with epistemic uncertainties is outlined and implications of applying the principles to natural hazard science are discussed. Hide

A simplified methodological framework for multi-hazard (earthquake and flood) fragility and damage risk analyses of fluvial earthen dikes is presented. The system of earthen dikes along the Rhine River in the area around Cologne is considered with respect to their possible damage due to liquefaction induced by seismic ground shaking in combination with flooding. It is emphasized that the potential interactions between the two hazards should not be ignored in risk analyses and decision making. Hide

In order to assess tsunami hazard in oceanic islands, one needs to enlarge the observational time window by finding more evidence of past events. Here, we present a thick two-layer tsunami deposit evidenced in an archaeological excavation in Martinique and we relate it to the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. Our results indicate a way to improve our tsunami databases and further constrain the use of numerical modelling to predict paleo-tsunami deposit thickness. Hide

We perform a hazard sensitivity study for two sites in Israel, exploring effects of uncertainty on the calculated seismic hazard. We account for uncertainty in the earthquake source properties, such as their geometric representation and seismic activity. We also account for uncertainty in the wave propagation path, by using alternative models to describe the ground motion calculations. We conclude that the current practice in Israel should be updated as it is probably underestimating the hazard. Hide

While country-specific, continental and global susceptibility maps are increasingly available, local and regional susceptibility studies remain rare in remote and data-poor settings. Here, we provide a landslide susceptibility assessment for the inhabited region of the Rwenzori Mountains. We find that higher spatial resolutions do not necessarily lead to better models and that models built for local case studies perform better than aggregated susceptibility assessments on the regional scale. Hide

There is currently no protocol for rapid humanitarian-facing landslide assessment, and no published recognition of what is possible and useful to compile immediately after a triggering event. Drawing on the 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Nepal), we consider how quickly a landslide assessment based upon manual satellite-based emergency mapping (SEM) can be realistically achieved, and review the decisions taken by analysts to ascertain the timeliness and type of useful information that can be generated. Hide