The objective of this paper is to present a new methodology for the analysis of the seismic induced tsunami hazard. The proposed methodology mainly relies on uncertainty quantification techniques and the construction and validation of some emulators, or meta-models, used instead of the original models for the construction of a numerical tsunamis database. The methodology was tested with tsunamis generated by the Azores-Gibraltar Fracture Zone and potentially impacting the French Coast. Hide

Multi-satellite/sensor observations and ground-based measurements combined with the HYSPLIT model were used to analyse the dynamical processes of the origin and transport of the strong dust storm. The optical and microphysical properties of the dust particles were analysed using AERONET measurements. The combined observations revealed comprehensive information about the dynamic transport of dust and the dust affected regions, and the effect of dust storms on the aerosol properties. Hide

This paper proposes a new method that integrated the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Difference Method (MD) to assess susceptibility of geological hazards within MapGIS environment. The major principle of this method is that predict the probability of occurring geological hazards based on occurrence mechanism of occurred geological hazards and the geological conditions that caused geological hazards. Most of areas of the study area are under the moderate and low susceptibility zones. Hide

A catastrophic flood south of the Alps in 1868 is assessed using documentaries, a reanalysis, and the earliest high-resolution weather simulation so far. Simulated weather dynamics agree well with observations and damage reports, while simulated peak water levels are biased. No flood-causing effect by low forest cover is found, but such a paradigm was used to implement afforestation. The simulations – supported by historical methods – have potential to shed new light on long past weather events. Hide

An early warning system with a risk-based approach for drought assessment in the Bolivian Altiplano was established using satellite imagery data focusing on ENSO phases. During warm ENSO phase resulted a great difference in risk and crop yield. ENSO early warning forecasts and possible crop deficits could be established, including the identification of hotspots for the growing season. Our approach could lead a proactive approach for drought management that can include risk reduction instruments. Hide

In this paper the investigation of the main climatic mudflow conditions in Uzbekistan based on local observational data and peer-reviewed material from non-English literature which is widely missing in scientific, peer-reviewed international literature making it accessible for an international research community for the first time. Hide

Climate change is susceptible to affect the safety of water infrastructures such as dams. However, related information is vast and scattered, and the assessment of these impacts remains complex. This article seeks a multidisciplinary review of the potential impacts of climate change in every component of dam safety. This will provide useful information for dam owners and dam safety practitioners in their decision-making process. Hide

Anticipating the flight path of a bouncing object wields fascination over playing children and scientists alike. While the path of a ball can be judged easily, the erratic rebound behaviour of complex shaped forms are intriguing. Here, we focus on the time scales and rotation changes during real rock-ground impacts while travelling down a slope. Specialized sensors inside the rock track those changes and reveal contact times in the millisecond range defining the overall flightpath behaviour. Hide

This paper reviews the computation of Coastal Vulnerability Indexes (CVI) of a coast towards inundation, due to a known model. We refer to the original proposal, detailing in a second moment the CVI computation through an accurate investigation of the local wave climate. We prove that the resulting vulnerability is very sensitive due to the wave features taken into account, which have to be properly assessed. The research is the follow-up of a wider project set along the bay of lalzit (Albania). Hide

In Merapi volcano, lava dome failure may generate pyroclastic flow and threaten populations who living on its flanks. Here, I assessed the potential hazard of the Merapi lava dome by using drone photogammetry and numerical modeling. Results show a weak structural depression that associated with high thermal at the southern Merapi lava dome sector. The southern lava dome sector may further destabilize by a typical rainfall at Merapi summit and produce pyroclastic flow up to 4 kilometers distance. Hide

The source model was considered as a stochastic submarine earthquake. As the noise intensity increases, the amplitude and oscillation of the tsunami wave increases. The amount of water displaced increases as the length of the source model increases. The potential energy increases as the height of the wave increases. The L² norm can be useful when there are no adequate data about the bottom topography. The average velocity may provide warning of a tsunami approach, based on velocity oscillations. Hide

Two forecasting chains are forced by information from numerical weather predictions. The framework presented in the companion paper by Antonetti et al. has been set up for the Swiss Verzasca basin. The forecasts obtained with the uncalibrated RGM-PRO model are compared to forecasts yielded by the calibrated PREVAH-HRU model. Results shows that the uncalibrated model is able to compete with the calibrated operational prediction system and was consistently superior for high-flow situations. Hide

To predict timing and magnitude peak runoff meteorological and calibrated hydrological models are commonly coupled. A flash floods forecasting chain is presented based on a process-based runoff generation module with no need for calibration. This chain has been evaluated using data for the Emme catchment (Switzerland). The outcomes of this study show that operational FF predictions in ungauged basins can benefit from the use of information on runoff processes. This paper has a companion paper. Hide

Certain general rules about the effect of impact angle on coefficients of restitution in rockfall simulation hold regardless of the laboratory test scales and conditions. Increasing impact angle will induce reductions in R_n and R_E, whereas it will have a trivial impact on R_t. A small impact angle will likely cause the rebound angle to exceed the impact angle, which usually causes a higher R_n and lower R_E. This leads to extreme scatter results of restitution and hinders the trajectory prediction. Hide

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Debbie crossed the northeast coast of Australia on 27 March 2017. A multi-sector consortium collected data throughout the event to produce a holistic picture of hazards and impacts at the coast. While water levels and waves were unprecedented for this area since monitoring began, TC Debbie can be regarded a near-miss in terms of widespread coastal flooding. This work provides a rare case study of cross-sector data sharing in a natural hazard context in Australia. Hide

Natural hazard losses are sensitive to the dependency between extreme values of the hazard variable at different spatial locations, hence it is important to correctly identify and quantify dependency to avoid poor quantification of risk. Through application to a large dataset of windstorm hazard footprints, this study demonstrates how extreme value methods can be used in a novel way to explore and quantify extremal dependency in hazards and the impact this has on the resulting hazard losses. Hide

We analyzed the geomorphologic distribution and the temporal-spatial variations of hydrological droughts. The rainfall and its variation during drought periods had very limited impacts on the hydrological droughts in karst drainage basins. During 2000–2010, the hydrological droughts in Guizhou Province increased year by year, and the inter-annual variation of hydrological droughts in Guizhou had obvious stage characteristics. Hide

The statistical data about risk and its factors are insufficient in China. For this reason, we proposed an improved logistic regression model for predicting water shortage risk probability when data is insufficient. The risk probability prediction model for water shortage risk was constructed and tested based on the data from 1979 to 2012. It was concluded that the risk prediction model was applicable. Risks in 2020 were evaluated under different scenarios of inflow conditions. Hide

Improving the speed and accuracy of earthquake disaster loss evaluations is very important for disaster response and rescue. This paper presents a new method for urban damage assessments after earthquake disasters by using a change detection technique between bi-temporal (pre- and post-event) high-resolution optical images. Hide

Trying to perform a landslide susceptibility map using a field-work-based landslide inventory and a Logistic Regression model, two crucial questions came to our minds: (i) Shall we consider unsurveyed regions of the study area, for which landslide absence is typically assumed? and (ii) Which reference mapping unit should be used in our model? So, we compared four maps and found that rejecting unsurveyed regions together with slope units as reference mapping unit should be the best option. Hide

Landslides are destructive events, threatening the integrity of land transport systems. This paper presents how road networks are vulnerable towards landslides, with emphasis on the consequences for affected road users. Results show the merits of using agent-based traffic modeling for assessing the impacts of road network interruptions on rural communities by providing insight into the characteristics of the population affected, and the effects on its daily routine in terms of detour costs. Hide

Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction are important and complementary policy goals. However, public policies, methods and practices across both policy domains often lack coherence, and opportunities are not fully exploited to build up resilience. We have identified cases and principles that hold potential for promoting coherence through sharing knowledge, closer collaboration between existing science and policy platforms and networks, and better use of financial resources. Hide

Debris flows, following wildfires, constitute a significant threat to downstream populations and infrastructure. Therefore, developing measures to reduce the vulnerability of local communities to debris flows is of paramount importance. This work proposes a new model for predicting post-fire debris flow occurrence at a regional scale and demonstrates that the proposed model has notably higher skill than the currently used approaches. Hide

The fallout of large clasts (> 5 cm) from the margins of eruptive plumes can damage local infrastructure and severely injure people close to the volcano. Even though this potential hazard has been observed at many volcanoes, it has often been overlooked. We present the first hazard and risk assessment of large-clast fallout from eruptive plumes and use Mt Etna (Italy) as a case study. The use of dedicated shelters in the case of an explosive event that occurs with no warning is also evaluated. Hide