Storms are common in tropical coasts and can cause dangerous flooding. To assess coastal flood hazards and the mechanisms controlling water levels, this study uses numerical modelling, applied to the north-western Yucatán Peninsula. Results suggest that (a) wave set-up is tidally modulated and can be an important process (up to 14 % of the extreme water levels), and (b) the tidal phase (low, high, rising, receding) and its occurrence probability have to be taken into account for risk assessment. Hide

The difference in susceptibility might lead to a difference in warning threshold for rainfall-induced landslides. Here we divided slope units into three susceptibility levels and established their thresholds separately. It was found that the threshold values gradually increased as the susceptibility decreased for the same alert level. This showed that classifying susceptibility and establishing thresholds separately might provide refined thresholds for disaster prevention. Hide

This study constructs a comprehensive dataset of global strong ground motion data to define new concepts of earthquake location and strong shaking area. These concepts can help to facilitate a more effective communication of the natural hazard of earthquakes that is focused on surface shaking. Past earthquake shaking is analyzed to support a transition of the discussion of earthquakes from seismology to a geography context and thus foster improved social science research on earthquake impacts. Hide

We have evaluated two methodologies widely accepted in the tsunami building vulnerability assessment taking advantage of the tsunami occurred in 2015 in central-northern Chile with the aim of validating their potential use in other Chilean cities. Our results show that version 3 of the model obtains is a better approach to the expected damages distribution and can therefore be a helpful tool for the assessment of futures mitigation measures in the land-use policies to come. Hide

This paper analyzes the connection between the so-called atmospheric rivers (ARs, long and narrow structures of anomalously high water vapor flux located in the warm sector of extratropical cyclones) and floods in the northwestern region of the Iberian Peninsula through the use of the weather types classification adopting the subjective procedure of Lamb. Hide

The paper presents a statistical analysis of socioeconomic factors influencing vulnerability and exposure to severe weather. By means of statistical modelling, the risks of weather impacts can be predicted at very high spatial resolutions. Such models can serve as a basis for a broad range of tools or applications in emergency management and planning and thus might help to enhance resilience to severe weather. Hide

We assessed the evolution of the rural–urban interface (RUI) in Portugal based on land cover changes. A significant increase in artificial surfaces was registered near the main metropolitan communities, whilst the abandonment of agricultural land near the inland urban areas led to an increase in uncultivated semi-natural areas. Consequently, RUI increased more than two-thirds and burnt areas within the RUI doubled, emphasizing the importance of RUI monitoring for land and fire managers. Hide

Landslides are causing serious problems worldwide. To improve the risk communication, a Web-based interactive landslide simulator is used in this study. The ILS tool is based on the assumption that landslides occur due to environmental factors (spatial geology and rainfall) as well as human factors. The ILS also provides feedback in terms of fatality, injury, and property damage due to landslides. Results of an experiment with ILS suggest improved performance with repeated and rich feedback. Hide

Aerial multi-perspective images can be used for the effective assessment of post-disaster structural damage. Alternatively, rapidly available video data can be processed for the same purpose. However, video quality characteristics are different than those of images taken with still cameras. The use of video data in post-disaster damage assessment has not been demonstrated. Based on a comparative assessment, our findings support the application of video data in post-disaster damage assessment. Hide

We present a method for acquiring very-high-resolution images for 3-D mapping of gullies over kilometre-square areas using kites. Kites used in appropriate conditions can be an advantageous alternative to light unmanned aircraft when local regulations or weather conditions hamper their use. We proved that kites can acquire images, allowing for high-quality 3-D coverage of large areas. We automatically detected and mapped gullies from a decimetre kite DEM with 74 % accuracy of the length. Hide

This study explore the feasibility of using a combination of recent and traditional satellite products to estimate the grassland fire fuel availability across space and time over Australia. We found a significant relationship between both recent and traditional satellite products and observed grassland fuel availability and develop an estimation model. We hope our estimation model will provide a more balanced alternative to the currently available grass fuel availability estimation models. Hide

This study of a historical tornado that occurred about 100 years ago was motivated by the fact that rich photo material of the inflicted damage was available. It is important to rate particularly strong tornadoes, because their number is generally low, and statistics of the frequency for such events and the subsequent risk assessment heavily rely on a sound data basis. The tornado reached maximum winds of F4 intensity and caused 34 fatalities. A working method is presented for similar events. Hide

This article describes the first volcanic emission advection model based on an adaptive mesh. The advection of volcanic emissions plays a crucial role in climate research, air traffic control and human wellbeing. In contrast to already existing volcanic emission dispersion models relying on a fixed grid, the application of an adaptive mesh enables us to simulate the advection of volcanic emissions with a high local resolution while minimizing computational cost. Hide

We present a multiscale and multi-sensor methodology for flood mapping using free or low-cost data. We first mapped flooded areas at basin scale using free satellite data using both SAR and multispectral sensors. At local scale we refine mapping using very high-resolution images from Remotely Piloted Aerial System and terrestrial car camera, then we used these data to create 3-D model with structure from motion (SfM). All these data allowed creating accurate flooded area and water depth maps. Hide

Recent tsunami events have exposed the need for further work to develop and apply tsunami risk reduction measures. A key parameter that must be adequately determined is the run-up, the maximum elevation to which water from a tsunami wave will rise during its flooding process. In this work, a new methodology to simply calculate the run-up is presented. The methodology has been applied to calculate a tsunami run-up database, where the run-up of new events can be calculated by interpolation. Hide

Norway has, since 2013, an operative nation-wide landslide forecasting and early warning system for shallow landslides. The early warning system uses thresholds for soil moisture and water supply from rain and snowmelt to issue warnings to the public and relevant authorities when the risk for landslide hazard is present. The warnings are regional and are issued at www.varsom.no. Colours are used to symbolize the hazard level. Hide

Coastal and submarine landslides occur on average every 30–50 years at the western tip of the Gulf of Corinth. These landslides trigger tsunamis and thus represent a significant hazard. We realized an inventory of the submarine landslide deposits in the western Gulf. Six large events are identified in the last 130 000 years. Such sliding events likely generated large tsunami waves in the whole Gulf of Corinth, possibly larger than those reported in historical sources. Hide

This paper studies the lake dynamics for avalanche-triggered glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the Cordillera Blanca mountain range in Ancash, Peru. Lake Palcacocha is used as a case study to analyze the upper watershed processes that typically comprise a GLOF event, specifically the lake dynamics when an avalanche produces a large displacement wave that might overtop and erode the lake-damming moraine. Hide

Debris flow early warning has always been based on well-calibrated rainfall thresholds. For areas where historical data are insufficient, to determine a rainfall threshold, it is necessary to develop a method to obtain the threshold by using limited data. A quantitative method, a new way to calculate the rainfall threshold, is developed in this study, which combines the initiation mechanism of hydraulic-driven debris flow with the runoff yield and concentration laws of the watershed. Hide

We study flood protection options in a pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany. Protection systems are evaluated probabilistically, taking into account climatic and other uncertainties as well as the possibility of future adjustments. Despite large uncertainty in damage, cost, and climate, we arrive at a rough recommendation. Hence, one can make good decisions under large uncertainty. The results also show it is preferable to plan risk-based rather than protecting from a specific design flood. Hide

Flood loss modelling is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models are deterministic, and large disparities exist among them. Adopting a single model may lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. This paper proposes the use of multi-model ensembles to address such issues. We demonstrate that this can be a simple and pragmatic approach to obtain more accurate loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty. Hide

This paper presents an integrated approach to assessing floods and droughts in the transboundary Mékrou River basin, West Africa, combining climatic trends analysis and a household survey. The multi-variable trend analysis estimates, at the biophysical level, the climate variability and the occurrence of floods and droughts. These results are coupled with household survey data that reveal the opinions of local residents, the observed climate variability, and the costs of floods and droughts. Hide

This study looks at the importance of coral reefs and sand dunes in protecting the coast against flooding by storms. Many reefs and dunes are being degraded by human activities, making coastal areas more vulnerable. A computer model is used to look at the effects of reef and dune degradation on coastal flooding in Puerto Morelos, Mexico. Results show that the conservation of both the reef and dune is important to protect the coast and decrease infrastructure losses in the short to medium term. Hide

The likelihood of severe weather events in synoptically weakly forced thunderstorm (WFT) environments is best characterized by lapse-rate-based parameters. These measures, also among the most accurate model-derived variables, are posited to best capture the subtle convective environmental differences that favor WFT severity. Forecasters should consider weighting their WFT forecasts in favor of lapse-rate-based parameters over others that may be more sensitive to model biases. Hide

Despite the increased attention given to critical infrastructure resilience in the context of natural hazards and disasters discussions on the role of social vulnerability assessments and minimum supply considerations for governing critical infrastructure failures remain scarce. Based on a structured literature review the paper responds to the identified gaps by developing a heuristic model on the linkages between the three topics and sketches out recommendations for a future research agenda. Hide