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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 10, issue 9
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 2009–2020, 2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2009-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: Applying ensemble climate change projections for assessing...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 2009–2020, 2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2009-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  29 Sep 2010

29 Sep 2010

Probabilistic projections for 21st century European climate

G. R. Harris, M. Collins, D. M. H. Sexton, J. M. Murphy, and B. B. B. Booth G. R. Harris et al.
  • Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK

Abstract. We present joint probability distribution functions of future seasonal-mean changes in surface air temperature and precipitation for the European region for the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The probabilistic projections quantify uncertainties in the leading physical, chemical and biological feedbacks and combine information from perturbed physics ensembles, multi-model ensembles and observations.

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