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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 10, issue 2 | Copyright

Special issue: Advances in Mediterranean meteorology

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 265-273, 2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-265-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  12 Feb 2010

12 Feb 2010

Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique for quantitative precipitation forecasts in Piemonte region

D. Cane and M. Milelli D. Cane and M. Milelli
  • Regional Environmental Protection Agency – Arpa Piemonte, Torino, Italy

Abstract. The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing direct model output errors. It has been applied to real time NWP, TRMM-SSM/I based multi-analysis, Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Hurricane Forecasts. The novelty of this approach lies in the methodology, which differs from ensemble analysis techniques used elsewhere.

Several model outputs are put together with adequate weights to obtain a combined estimation of meteorological parameters. Weights are calculated by least-square minimization of the difference between the model and the observed field during a so-called training period. Although it can be applied successfully on the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure, the Multimodel SuperEnsemble gives good results also when applied on the precipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods. Here we present our methodology for the Multimodel precipitation forecasts, involving a new accurate statistical method for bias correction and a wide spectrum of results over Piemonte very dense non-GTS weather station network.

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