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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 11, issue 6 | Copyright

Special issue: 11th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1657-1668, 2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 14 Jun 2011

Research article | 14 Jun 2011

Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls through non-homogeneous Poissonian processes

B. Sirangelo, E. Ferrari, and D. L. De Luca B. Sirangelo et al.
  • Soil Conservation Department, University of Calabria, Rende (CS), Italy

Abstract. A stochastic model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process, characterised by a time-dependent intensity of rainfall occurrence, is employed to explain seasonal effects of daily rainfalls exceeding prefixed threshold values. The data modelling has been performed with a partition of observed daily rainfall data into a calibration period for parameter estimation and a validation period for checking on occurrence process changes. The model has been applied to a set of rain gauges located in different geographical areas of Southern Italy. The results show a good fit for time-varying intensity of rainfall occurrence process by 2-harmonic Fourier law and no statistically significant evidence of changes in the validation period for different threshold values.

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