Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1657-1668, 2011
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1657-2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
14 Jun 2011
Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls through non-homogeneous Poissonian processes
B. Sirangelo, E. Ferrari, and D. L. De Luca Soil Conservation Department, University of Calabria, Rende (CS), Italy
Abstract. A stochastic model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process, characterised by a time-dependent intensity of rainfall occurrence, is employed to explain seasonal effects of daily rainfalls exceeding prefixed threshold values. The data modelling has been performed with a partition of observed daily rainfall data into a calibration period for parameter estimation and a validation period for checking on occurrence process changes. The model has been applied to a set of rain gauges located in different geographical areas of Southern Italy. The results show a good fit for time-varying intensity of rainfall occurrence process by 2-harmonic Fourier law and no statistically significant evidence of changes in the validation period for different threshold values.

Citation: Sirangelo, B., Ferrari, E., and De Luca, D. L.: Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls through non-homogeneous Poissonian processes, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1657-1668, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1657-2011, 2011.
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