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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 11, issue 11
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3081–3091, 2011
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3081-2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: New developments in tsunami science: from hazard to risk

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3081–3091, 2011
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3081-2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 28 Nov 2011

Research article | 28 Nov 2011

An approximate method of short-term tsunami forecast and the hindcasting of some recent events

Yu. P. Korolev Yu. P. Korolev
  • Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 1b Nauki Str., Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 693022, Russia

Abstract. The paper presents a method for a short-term tsunami forecast based on sea level data from remote sites. This method is based on Green's function for the wave equation possessing the fundamental property of symmetry. This property is well known in acoustics and seismology as the reciprocity principle. Some applications of this principle on tsunami research are considered in the current study. Simple relationships and estimated transfer functions enabled us to simulate tsunami waveforms for any selected oceanic point based only on the source location and sea level data from a remote reference site. The important advantage of this method is that it is irrespective of the actual source mechanism (seismic, submarine landslide or other phenomena). The method was successfully applied to hindcast several recent tsunamis observed in the Northwest Pacific. The locations of the earthquake epicenters and the tsunami records from one of the NOAA DART sites were used as inputs for the modelling, while tsunami observations at other DART sites were used to verify the model. Tsunami waveforms for the 2006, 2007 and 2009 earthquake events near Simushir Island were simulated and found to be in good agreement with the observations. The correlation coefficients between the predicted and observed tsunami waveforms were from 0.50 to 0.85. Thus, the proposed method can be effectively used to simulate tsunami waveforms for the entire ocean and also for both regional and local tsunami warning services, assuming that they have access to the real-time sea level data from DART stations.

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