Abstract. In compliance with the development of the Water Framework Directive, there is a need for an integrated management of water resources, which involves the elaboration of reservoir management models. These models should include the operational and technical aspects which allow us to forecast an optimal management in the short term, besides the factors that may affect the volume of water stored in the medium and long term. The climate fluctuations of the water cycle that affect the reservoir watershed should be considered, as well as the social and economic aspects of the area. This paper shows the development of a management model for Rules reservoir (southern Spain), through which the water supply is regulated based on set criteria, in a sustainable way with existing commitments downstream, with the supply capacity being well established depending on demand, and the probability of failure when the operating requirements are not fulfilled. The results obtained allowed us: to find out the reservoir response at different time scales, to introduce an uncertainty analysis and to demonstrate the potential of the methodology proposed here as a tool for decision making.