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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 12, issue 9 | Copyright
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2743-2752, 2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 03 Sep 2012

Research article | 03 Sep 2012

A hydrological analysis of the 4 November 2011 event in Genoa

F. Silvestro1, S. Gabellani1, F. Giannoni2, A. Parodi1, N. Rebora1, R. Rudari1, and F. Siccardi1,3 F. Silvestro et al.
  • 1CIMA Research Foundation, Savona, Italy
  • 2ARPAL Regional Environment Protection Agency, Genova, Italy
  • 3University of Genova, Genova, Italy

Abstract. On the 4 November 2011 a flash flood event hit the area of Genoa with dramatic consequences. Such an event represents, from the meteorological and hydrological perspective, a paradigm of flash floods in the Mediterranean environment.

The hydro-meteorological probabilistic forecasting system for small and medium size catchments in use at the Civil Protection Centre of Liguria region exhibited excellent performances for the event, by predicting, 24–48 h in advance, the potential level of risk associated with the forecast. It greatly helped the decision makers in issuing a timely and correct alert.

In this work we present the operational outputs of the system provided during the Liguria events and the post event hydrological modelling analysis that has been carried out accounting also for the crowd sourcing information and data. We discuss the benefit of the implemented probabilistic systems for decision-making under uncertainty, highlighting how, in this case, the multi-catchment approach used for predicting floods in small basins has been crucial.

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