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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 12, issue 3 | Copyright

Special issue: Sea hazards

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 751-762, 2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 23 Mar 2012

Research article | 23 Mar 2012

On the probability of occurrence of rogue waves

E. M. Bitner-Gregersen1 and A. Toffoli2 E. M. Bitner-Gregersen and A. Toffoli
  • 1Det Norske Veritas, Veritasveien 1, 1322 Høvik, Norway
  • 2Swinburne University of Technology, P.O. Box 218, Hawthorn, 3122 Vic., Australia

Abstract. A number of extreme and rogue wave studies have been conducted theoretically, numerically, experimentally and based on field data in the last years, which have significantly advanced our knowledge of ocean waves. So far, however, consensus on the probability of occurrence of rogue waves has not been achieved. The present investigation is addressing this topic from the perspective of design needs. Probability of occurrence of extreme and rogue wave crests in deep water is here discussed based on higher order time simulations, experiments and hindcast data. Focus is given to occurrence of rogue waves in high sea states.

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