Brief communication "A prototype forecasting chain for rainfall induced shallow landslides"
P. Mercogliano2,1,S. Segoni3,G. Rossi3,B. Sikorsky2,1,V. Tofani3,P. Schiano2,1,F. Catani3,and N. Casagli3P. Mercogliano et al. P. Mercogliano2,1,S. Segoni3,G. Rossi3,B. Sikorsky2,1,V. Tofani3,P. Schiano2,1,F. Catani3,and N. Casagli3
1Euro Mediterranean Centre For Climate Changes (C.M.C.C.), Impacts on Ground and Coast (ISC) Division, Via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100, Lecce, Italy
2Italian Aerospace Research Center (C.I.R.A.), Meteo System & Instrumentation Laboratory, Capua (CE), 81043, Italy
3University of Firenze, Department of Earth Sciences, Via la Pira 4, 50121, Firenze, Italy
1Euro Mediterranean Centre For Climate Changes (C.M.C.C.), Impacts on Ground and Coast (ISC) Division, Via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100, Lecce, Italy
2Italian Aerospace Research Center (C.I.R.A.), Meteo System & Instrumentation Laboratory, Capua (CE), 81043, Italy
3University of Firenze, Department of Earth Sciences, Via la Pira 4, 50121, Firenze, Italy
Received: 19 Dec 2012 – Revised: 18 Feb 2013 – Accepted: 02 Mar 2013 – Published: 25 Mar 2013
Abstract. Although shallow landslides are a very widespread phenomenon, large area (e.g. thousands of square kilometres) early warning systems are commonly based on statistical rainfall thresholds, while physically based models are more commonly applied to smaller areas. This work provides a contribution towards the filling of this gap: a forecasting chain is designed assembling a numerical weather prediction model, a statistical rainfall downscaling tool and a geotechnical model for the distributed calculation of the factor of safety on a pixel-by-pixel basis. The forecasting chain can be used to forecast the triggering of shallow landslides with a 48 h lead time and was tested on a 3200 km2 wide area.
