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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 14, issue 7 | Copyright
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1663-1676, 2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 03 Jul 2014

Research article | 03 Jul 2014

A simple model for the estimation of the number of fatalities due to floods in central Europe

M. Brazdova and J. Riha M. Brazdova and J. Riha
  • Brno University of Technology, Institute of Water Structures, Brno, Czech Republic

Abstract. In this paper a model for the estimation of the number of potential fatalities is proposed based on data from 19 past floods in central Europe. First, the factors contributing to human losses during river floods are listed and assigned to the main risk factors: hazard – exposure – vulnerability. The order of significance of individual factors has been compiled by pairwise comparison based on experience with real flood events. A comparison with factors used in existing models for the estimation of fatalities during floods shows good agreement with the significant factors identified in this study. The most significant factors affecting the number of human losses in floods have been aggregated into three groups and subjected to correlation analysis. A close-fitting regression dependence is proposed for the estimation of loss of life and calibrated using data from selected real floods in central Europe. The application of the proposed model for the estimation of fatalities due to river floods is shown via a flood risk assessment for the locality of Krnov in the Czech Republic.

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