Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 2.281 IF 2.281
  • IF 5-year value: 2.693 IF 5-year 2.693
  • CiteScore value: 2.43 CiteScore 2.43
  • SNIP value: 1.193 SNIP 1.193
  • SJR value: 0.965 SJR 0.965
  • IPP value: 2.31 IPP 2.31
  • h5-index value: 40 h5-index 40
  • Scimago H index value: 73 Scimago H index 73
Volume 14, issue 7 | Copyright
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1853-1870, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1853-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 28 Jul 2014

Research article | 28 Jul 2014

Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

L. Becerril1, S. Bartolini1, R. Sobradelo1, J. Martí1, J. M. Morales2, and I. Galindo2 L. Becerril et al.
  • 1Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera, ICTJA-CSIC, Group of Volcanology, SIMGEO (UB-CSIC) Lluis Sole i Sabaris s/n, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
  • 2Instituto Geológico y Minero de España (IGME) c/Alonso Alvarado, 43-2A, 35003 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain

Abstract. Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for land-use planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure quality and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterisation of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year, no systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted on the Canary Islands. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest of the Canary Islands and the most recently affected by an eruption. We analyse the past eruptive activity to determine the spatial and temporal probability, and likely style of a future eruption on the island, i.e. the where, when and how. By studying the past eruptive behaviour of the island and assuming that future eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim to identify the most likely volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards, which include lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end result, through the combination of the most probable scenarios (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents and ashfall), is the first qualitative integrated volcanic hazard map of the island.

Publications Copernicus
Download
Citation
Share