Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2767-2781, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2767-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
14 Oct 2014
An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risk in the Netherlands
K. M. de Bruijn1, F. L. M. Diermanse2, and J. V. L. Beckers2 1Scenarios and Policy Analysis, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
2Inland Water Systems, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
Abstract. This paper discusses a new method for flood risk assessment in river deltas. Flood risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risk must be taken into account. This paper presents a Monte Carlo-based flood risk analysis framework for policy making, which considers both storm surges and river flood waves and includes effects from hydrodynamic interaction on flood risk. It was applied to analyse societal flood fatality risk in the Rhine–Meuse delta.

Citation: de Bruijn, K. M., Diermanse, F. L. M., and Beckers, J. V. L.: An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risk in the Netherlands, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2767-2781, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2767-2014, 2014.
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This paper discusses a new method for flood risk assessment in river deltas. Flood risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risk must be taken into account. The new Monte Carlo-based flood risk analysis method enables this. It is applied on societal flood fatality risks in the Rhine-Meuse deltas in the Netherlands.
This paper discusses a new method for flood risk assessment in river deltas. Flood risk analysis...
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