Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1087-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1087-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Jun 2015
Research article |
| 01 Jun 2015
UAV-based urban structural damage assessment using object-based image analysis and semantic reasoning
J. Fernandez Galarreta
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands
N. Kerle
Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands
M. Gerke
Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands
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Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-1-W2-2023, 307–313, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-W2-2023-307-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-W2-2023-307-2023, 2023
P. Achanccaray, M. Gerke, L. Wesche, S. Hoyer, K. Thiele, U. Knufinke, and C. Krafczyk
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-1-W2-2023, 1303–1309, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-W2-2023-1303-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-W2-2023-1303-2023, 2023
C. Berger and M. Gerke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B4-2022, 223–230, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2022-223-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2022-223-2022, 2022
M. S. Bajauri, A. Alamouri, and M. Gerke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B4-2022, 335–342, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2022-335-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2022-335-2022, 2022
N. Zhang, F. Nex, G. Vosselman, and N. Kerle
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B3-2022, 1189–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-1189-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-1189-2022, 2022
K. Mawas, M. Maboudi, and M. Gerke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B1-2022, 459–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B1-2022-459-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B1-2022-459-2022, 2022
S. Karam, F. Nex, O. Karlsson, J. Rydell, E. Bilock, M. Tulldahl, M. Holmberg, and N. Kerle
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-1-2022, 203–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-1-2022-203-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-1-2022-203-2022, 2022
P. Kirui, B. Riedel, and M. Gerke
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-3-2022, 115–122, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2022-115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2022-115-2022, 2022
T. Partovi, M. Dähne, M. Maboudi, D. Krueger, and M. Gerke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B1-2021, 85–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B1-2021-85-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B1-2021-85-2021, 2021
M. Maboudi, A. Elbillehy, Y. Ghassoun, and M. Gerke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B1-2021, 183–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B1-2021-183-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B1-2021-183-2021, 2021
N. Zhang, F. Nex, N. Kerle, and G. Vosselman
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B2-2021, 427–432, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2021-427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2021-427-2021, 2021
M. Maboudi, A. Alamouri, V. De Arriba López, M. S. Bajauri, C. Berger, and M. Gerke
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-1-2021, 121–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-1-2021-121-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-1-2021-121-2021, 2021
Seyedabdolhossein Mehvar, Kathelijne Wijnberg, Bas Borsje, Norman Kerle, Jan Maarten Schraagen, Joanne Vinke-de Kruijf, Karst Geurs, Andreas Hartmann, Rick Hogeboom, and Suzanne Hulscher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1383–1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1383-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1383-2021, 2021
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This review synthesizes and complements existing knowledge in designing resilient vital infrastructure systems (VIS). Results from a systematic literature review indicate that (i) VIS are still being built without taking resilience explicitly into account and (ii) measures to enhance the resilience of VIS have not been widely applied in practice. The main pressing topic to address is the integration of the combined social, ecological, and technical resilience of these systems.
Johannes Buckel, Eike Reinosch, Andreas Hördt, Fan Zhang, Björn Riedel, Markus Gerke, Antje Schwalb, and Roland Mäusbacher
The Cryosphere, 15, 149–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-149-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-149-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents insights into the remote cryosphere of a mountain range at the Tibetan Plateau. Small-scaled studies and field data about permafrost occurrence are very scarce. A multi-method approach (geomorphological mapping, geophysics, InSAR time series analysis) assesses the lower occurrence of permafrost the range of 5350 and 5500 m above sea level (a.s.l.) in the Qugaqie basin. The highest, multiannual creeping rates up to 150 mm/yr are observed on rock glaciers.
M. Maboudi, M. Gerke, N. Hack, L. Brohmann, P. Schwerdtner, and G. Placzek
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B4-2020, 763–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2020-763-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2020-763-2020, 2020
M.-O. Löwner, N. C. Bandelow, M. Gerke, F. Hillen, L. Klein, A. Schmidt, and T. Siefer
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B4-2020, 55–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2020-55-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2020-55-2020, 2020
M. Gerke, Y. Ghassoun, A. Alamouri, M. Bobbe, Y. Khedar, and F. Plöger
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-1-2020, 293–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-1-2020-293-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-1-2020-293-2020, 2020
S. M. Tilon, F. Nex, D. Duarte, N. Kerle, and G. Vosselman
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-2-2020, 573–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-2-2020-573-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-2-2020-573-2020, 2020
N. Fiorentini, M. Maboudi, M. Losa, and M. Gerke
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-4-2020, 19–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-4-2020-19-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-4-2020-19-2020, 2020
Eike Reinosch, Johannes Buckel, Jie Dong, Markus Gerke, Jussi Baade, and Björn Riedel
The Cryosphere, 14, 1633–1650, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1633-2020, 2020
Short summary
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In this research we present the results of our satellite analysis of a permafrost landscape and periglacial landforms in mountainous regions on the Tibetan Plateau. We study seasonal and multiannual surface displacement processes, such as the freezing and thawing of the ground, seasonally accelerated sliding on steep slopes, and continuous permafrost creep. This study is the first step of our goal to create an inventory of actively moving landforms within the Nyainqêntanglha range.
M. Maboudi, J. Amini, and M. Gerke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-4-W18, 683–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-683-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-683-2019, 2019
N. Kerle, F. Nex, D. Duarte, and A. Vetrivel
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-3-W8, 187–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W8-187-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W8-187-2019, 2019
P. Fanta-Jende, F. Nex, M. Gerke, J. Lijnen, and G. Vosselman
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W13, 1649–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1649-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1649-2019, 2019
A. Riedel, B. Riedel, D. Tengen, and M. Gerke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W13, 1945–1949, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1945-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1945-2019, 2019
A. Alamouri, M. Gerke, S. Batzdorfer, M. Becker, U. Bestmann, M. Bobbe, Y. Khedar, T. Blume, J. Schattenberg, and J. Schmiemann
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W13, 165–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-165-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-165-2019, 2019
S. Ghaffarian and N. Kerle
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W13, 297–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-297-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-297-2019, 2019
H.-J. Przybilla, M. Gerke, I. Dikhoff, and Y. Ghassoun
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W13, 531–538, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-531-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-531-2019, 2019
C. Stöcker, F. Nex, M. Koeva, and M. Gerke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W13, 613–617, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-613-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-613-2019, 2019
D. Duarte, F. Nex, N. Kerle, and G. Vosselman
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., IV-2-W5, 29–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-W5-29-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-W5-29-2019, 2019
A. Alamouri and M. Gerke
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., IV-2-W5, 87–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-W5-87-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-W5-87-2019, 2019
Z. Zhang, G. Vosselman, M. Gerke, C. Persello, D. Tuia, and M. Y. Yang
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., IV-2-W5, 453–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-W5-453-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-W5-453-2019, 2019
N. H. Isya, W. Niemeier, and M. Gerke
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., IV-2-W5, 623–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-W5-623-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-W5-623-2019, 2019
Johnny Cusicanqui, Norman Kerle, and Francesco Nex
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1583–1598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1583-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1583-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Aerial multi-perspective images can be used for the effective assessment of post-disaster structural damage. Alternatively, rapidly available video data can be processed for the same purpose. However, video quality characteristics are different than those of images taken with still cameras. The use of video data in post-disaster damage assessment has not been demonstrated. Based on a comparative assessment, our findings support the application of video data in post-disaster damage assessment.
P. Jende, F. Nex, M. Gerke, and G. Vosselman
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2, 471–477, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-471-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-471-2018, 2018
M. Maboudi, D. Bánhidi, and M. Gerke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2, 637–642, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-637-2018, 2018
D. Duarte, F. Nex, N. Kerle, and G. Vosselman
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., IV-2, 89–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-89-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-89-2018, 2018
Z. Zhang, M. Gerke, G. Vosselman, and M. Y. Yang
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., IV-2, 319–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-319-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-319-2018, 2018
M. Koeva, R. Bennett, M. Gerke, S. Crommelinck, C. Stöcker, J. Crompvoets, S. Ho, A. Schwering, M. Chipofya, C. Schultz, T. Zein, M. Biraro, B. Alemie, R. Wayumba, and K. Kundert
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W7, 37–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-37-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-37-2017, 2017
C. Stöcker, F. Nex, M. Koeva, and M. Gerke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W6, 355–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W6-355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W6-355-2017, 2017
D. Duarte, F. Nex, N. Kerle, and G. Vosselman
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W6, 93–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W6-93-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W6-93-2017, 2017
S. Crommelinck, R. Bennett, M. Gerke, M. N. Koeva, M. Y. Yang, and G. Vosselman
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., IV-2-W3, 9–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-W3-9-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-W3-9-2017, 2017
P. Jende, F. Nex, M. Gerke, and G. Vosselman
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-1-W1, 317–323, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-1-W1-317-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-1-W1-317-2017, 2017
M. Gerke, F. Nex, F. Remondino, K. Jacobsen, J. Kremer, W. Karel, H. Hu, and W. Ostrowski
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLI-B1, 185–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLI-B1-185-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLI-B1-185-2016, 2016
M. Gerke, F. Nex, and P. Jende
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XL-3-W4, 11–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XL-3-W4-11-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XL-3-W4-11-2016, 2016
P. Jende, Z. Hussnain, M. Peter, S. Oude Elberink, M. Gerke, and G. Vosselman
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XL-3-W4, 19–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XL-3-W4-19-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XL-3-W4-19-2016, 2016
K. Jacobsen and M. Gerke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XL-3-W4, 35–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XL-3-W4-35-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XL-3-W4-35-2016, 2016
T. Kraft, M. Geßner, H. Meißner, H. J. Przybilla, and M. Gerke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XL-3-W4, 71–75, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XL-3-W4-71-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XL-3-W4-71-2016, 2016
W. Kim, N. Kerle, and M. Gerke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 287–298, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-287-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-287-2016, 2016
Short summary
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This study assesses the value of a novel technology, mobile augmented reality, for rapid damage and safety assessment of the state of buildings in the aftermath of a disaster event. In this study, we propose and demonstrate conceptual frameworks and approaches for in situ ground-based assessment based on augmented reality using mobile devices such as smartphones and tablet PCs.
W. T. Yang, M. Wang, N. Kerle, C. J. Van Westen, L. Y. Liu, and P. J. Shi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 817–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-817-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-817-2015, 2015
N. Kerle and R. R. Hoffman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 97–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-97-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-97-2013, 2013
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
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Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
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This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
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This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2205, 2023
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In this work, we improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid and using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original, and even has the potential of introducing savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
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Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
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This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2032, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2032, 2023
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We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could affect New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-139, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios, by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and the decision making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-135, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in Central Asia, being the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area, and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
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Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-106, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows to identify where high losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for Central-Asia and it surely represents an advance step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show a total risk of about 3.9 billion USD and a mean risk of 0.6 million USD per square kilometer.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
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Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
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This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
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To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-94, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-94, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asia country. Population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
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The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
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Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-504, 2023
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This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature to provide a basis to develop multi-hazard recovery planning tools for decision-making. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
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Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
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The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
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This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
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The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
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Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Marta Sapena, Mortiz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-41, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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A new approach for the deployment of Early Warning Systems (EWSs) in landslide-prone areas is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify high-risk locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that EWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from €5 to €41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outlines the challenges and opportunities for successful EWS implementation.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
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In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
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Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
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Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Carlos Mesta, Gemma Cremen, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, 2023
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Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions worldwide due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The benefits of risk-mitigation measures remain inadequately quantified for potential future events in some multi-hazard-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley (KV), Nepal, which this paper addresses. The analysis involves modeling two flood occurrence scenarios and using four residential exposure inventories representing current urban system or near-future development trajectories for KV.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1349, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1349, 2023
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This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-8, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The manuscript deals with the necessity to understand to what extent the analysis of stakeholders' opinions in survey results is affected by the choices that researchers make. We look at four technologies that are objects to increased interest in the field of disaster risk management and find that different methodologies indeed produce different preferences over these. This work should pose as a warning to further research that seek to evaluate tools and technologies using survey results.
Kirk B. Enu, Aude Zingraff-Hamed, Mohammad A. Rahman, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Stephan Pauleit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 481–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, 2023
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In sub-Saharan Africa, there is reported uptake of at least one nature-based solution (NBS) in 71 % of urban areas in the region for mitigating hydro-meteorological risks. These NBSs are implemented where risks exist but not where they are most severe. With these NBSs providing multiple ecosystem services and four out of every five NBSs creating livelihood opportunities, NBSs can help address major development challenges in the region, such as water and food insecurity and unemployment.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-277, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and the use of cluster analysis, this research has assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents in 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. Quantitative assessments offer comparisons specifically between distinct units and, the results indicate that different types of communities have great differences in social vulnerability.
Madeleine-Sophie Déroche
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 251–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, 2023
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This paper proves the need to conduct an in-depth review of the existing loss modelling framework and makes it clear that only a transdisciplinary effort will be up to the challenge of building global loss models. These two factors are essential to capture the interactions and increasing complexity of the three risk drivers (exposure, hazard, and vulnerability), thus enabling insurers to anticipate and be equipped to face the far-ranging impacts of climate change and other natural events.
May Laor and Zohar Gvirtzman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 139–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, 2023
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This study aims to provide a practical and relatively fast solution for early-stage planning of marine infrastructure that must cross a faulted zone. Instead of investing huge efforts in finding whether each specific fault meets a pre-defined criterion of activeness, we map the subsurface and determine the levels of fault hazard based on the amount of displacement and the fault's plane size. This allows for choosing the least problematic infrastructure routes at an early planning stage.
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 45–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, 2023
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This study maps agriculture's vulnerability to drought in the European pre-Alpine regions of Thurgau (CH) and Podravska (SI). We combine region-specific knowledge with quantitative data mapping; experts of the study regions, far apart, identified a few common but more region-specific factors that we integrated in two vulnerability scenarios. We highlight the benefits of the participatory approach in improving the quantitative results and closing the gap between science and practitioners.
Lorenzo Cugliari, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, Andrea Cerase, Alessandro Amato, and Loredana Cerbara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4119–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, 2022
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The Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy since 2018. A total of 7342 questionnaires were collected in three survey phases (2018, 2020, 2021). In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the survey.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
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This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3815–3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, 2022
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Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Andrea Taramelli, Margherita Righini, Emiliana Valentini, Lorenzo Alfieri, Ignacio Gatti, and Simone Gabellani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3543–3569, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, 2022
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This work aims to support decision-making processes to prioritize effective interventions for flood risk reduction and mitigation for the implementation of flood risk management concepts in urban areas. Our findings provide new insights into vulnerability spatialization of urban flood events for the residential sector, demonstrating that the nature of flood pathways varies spatially and is influenced by landscape characteristics, as well as building features.
Pauline Brémond, Anne-Laurence Agenais, Frédéric Grelot, and Claire Richert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3385–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, 2022
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It is impossible to protect all issues against flood risk. To prioritise protection, economic analyses are conducted. The French Ministry of the Environment wanted to make available damage functions that we have developed for several sectors. For this, we propose a methodological framework and apply it to the model we have developed to assess damage to agriculture. This improves the description, validation, transferability and updatability of models based on expert knowledge.
Wenwu Gong, Jie Jiang, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3271–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, 2022
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We propose a model named variable fuzzy set and information diffusion (VFS–IEM–IDM) to assess the dynamic risk of compound hazards, which takes into account the interrelations between the hazard drivers, deals with the problem of data sparsity, and considers the temporal dynamics of the occurrences of the compound hazards. To examine the efficacy of the proposed VFS–IEM–IDM model, a case study of typhoon–rainstorm risks in Shenzhen, China, is presented.
Sanish Bhochhibhoya and Roisha Maharjan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3211–3230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, 2022
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This is a comprehensive approach to risk assessment that considers the dynamic relationship between loss and damage. The study combines physical risk with social science to mitigate the disaster caused by earthquakes in Nepal, taking socioeconomical parameters into account such that the risk estimates can be monitored over time. The main objective is to recognize the cause of and solutions to seismic hazard, building the interrelationship between individual, natural, and built-in environments.
Lennart Marien, Mahyar Valizadeh, Wolfgang zu Castell, Christine Nam, Diana Rechid, Alexandra Schneider, Christine Meisinger, Jakob Linseisen, Kathrin Wolf, and Laurens M. Bouwer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3015–3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, 2022
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Myocardial infarctions (MIs; heart attacks) are influenced by temperature extremes, air pollution, lack of green spaces and ageing population. Here, we apply machine learning (ML) models in order to estimate the influence of various environmental and demographic risk factors. The resulting ML models can accurately reproduce observed annual variability in MI and inter-annual trends. The models allow quantification of the importance of individual factors and can be used to project future risk.
Annette Sophie Bösmeier, Iso Himmelsbach, and Stefan Seeger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2963–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, 2022
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Encouraging a systematic use of flood marks for more comprehensive flood risk management, we collected a large number of marks along the Kinzig, southwestern Germany, and tested them for plausibility and temporal continuance. Despite uncertainty, the marks appeared to be an overall consistent and practical source that may also increase flood risk awareness. A wide agreement between the current flood hazard maps and the collected flood marks moreover indicated a robust local hazard assessment.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-218, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of the emergency medical services and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely emergency medical services under inclement weather. And we found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of emergency medical services by up to 40 %. Besides, towns with lower baseline EMS accessibility is more vulnerable to inclement weather.
Mark Schuerch, Hannah L. Mossman, Harriet E. Moore, Elizabeth Christie, and Joshua Kiesel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2879–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, 2022
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Coastal nature-based solutions to adapt to sea-level rise, such as managed realignments (MRs), are becoming increasingly popular amongst scientists and coastal managers. However, local communities often oppose these projects, partly because scientific evidence for their efficiency is limited. Here, we propose a framework to work with stakeholders and communities to define success variables of MR projects and co-produce novel knowledge on the projects’ efficiency to mitigate coastal flood risks.
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022
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Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Masahiko Haraguchi, Nicole Davi, Mukund Palat Rao, Caroline Leland, Masataka Watanabe, and Upmanu Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2751–2770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, 2022
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Mass livestock mortality during severe winters (dzud in Mongolian) is a compound event. Summer droughts are a precondition for dzud. We estimate the return levels of relevant variables: summer drought conditions and minimum winter temperature. The result shows that the return levels of drought conditions vary over time. Winter severity, however, is constant. We link climatic factors to socioeconomic impacts and draw attention to the need for index insurance.
Samuel Rufat, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Alexander Fekete, Emeline Comby, Peter J. Robinson, Iuliana Armaş, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2655–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, 2022
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It remains unclear why people fail to act adaptively to reduce future losses, even when there is ever-richer information available. To improve the ability of researchers to build cumulative knowledge, we conducted an international survey – the Risk Perception and Behaviour Survey of Surveyors (Risk-SoS). We find that most studies are exploratory and often overlook theoretical efforts that would enable the accumulation of evidence. We offer several recommendations for future studies.
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