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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1289-1295, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1289-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
19 Jun 2015
Rainfall and land use empirically coupled to forecast landslides in the Esino river basin, central Italy
E. Gioia, T. Carone, and F. Marincioni Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy
Abstract. A coupled empirical approach to highlight relationships between rainfall, vegetation segmentation, and landslide occurrence is discussed. To reveal such links, two important rainfall events, which occurred over the Esino river basin in central Italy in November 2013 and May 2014, were analysed. The correlation between rainfall and landslides was evaluated by applying an intensity–duration (ID) threshold method, whereas the correlation between vegetation segmentation and landslides was investigated using morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA). This coupled approach represents an attempt to find both timing and location of landslide occurrence through an empirical (black box) analysis. Results showed: (i) the ID minimum threshold proposed in a previous study (Gioia et al., 2015) to be verified as an effective equation to assess the rainfall conditions likely to trigger landslides in the study area ("when"), and (ii) the core areas and the fragmented vegetation structures defined by the MSPA to be the most affected by slope failures ("where"). These encouraging findings prompt additional testing and the application of such a coupled empirical approach so that it is possible to achieve an integrated basis for landslide forecasting.

Citation: Gioia, E., Carone, T., and Marincioni, F.: Rainfall and land use empirically coupled to forecast landslides in the Esino river basin, central Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1289-1295, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1289-2015, 2015.
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Short summary
A coupled empirical approach for studying possible correlations among rainfall, vegetation segmentation, and landslide occurrence is applied over the Esino river basin, central Italy. This approach represents an attempt to find both the timing and location of landslides, through an empirical (black box) analysis. Results verify an intensity-duration minimum threshold for the study area (when) and define core areas and fragmented vegetation structures most susceptible to landslides (where).
A coupled empirical approach for studying possible correlations among rainfall, vegetation...
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