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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 15, issue 7 | Copyright

Special issue: Landslide Prediction & Forecasting

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1639-1644, 2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 29 Jul 2015

Research article | 29 Jul 2015

Landslide early warning based on failure forecast models: the example of the Mt. de La Saxe rockslide, northern Italy

A. Manconi1,a and D. Giordan1 A. Manconi and D. Giordan
  • 1Geohazard Monitoring Group, CNR IRPI, Strada delle Cacce 73, 10135 Turin, Italy
  • anow at: Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Department of Earth Sciences, Zurich, Switzerland

Abstract. We apply failure forecast models by exploiting near-real-time monitoring data for the La Saxe rockslide, a large unstable slope threatening Aosta Valley in northern Italy. Starting from the inverse velocity theory, we analyze landslide surface displacements automatically and in near real time on different temporal windows and apply straightforward statistical methods to obtain confidence intervals on the estimated time of failure. Here, we present the result obtained for the La Saxe rockslide, a large unstable slope located in Aosta Valley, northern Italy. Based on this case study, we identify operational thresholds that are established on the reliability of the forecast models. Our approach is aimed at supporting the management of early warning systems in the most critical phases of the landslide emergency.

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