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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 15, issue 8 | Copyright
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1711-1720, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1711-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 03 Aug 2015

Research article | 03 Aug 2015

Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

Y. Krien1,a, B. Dudon1, J. Roger1,2, and N. Zahibo1 Y. Krien et al.
  • 1LARGE-Laboratoire de Recherche en Géosciences, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane, Guadeloupe, Pointe-A-Pitre, France
  • 2G-Mer Etudes Marines, Guadeloupe, Saint François, France
  • anow at: UMR7266, LIENSs, Université de la Rochelle, La Rochelle, France

Abstract. Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100-year and 1000-year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC–SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40–60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but found to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows storm surge level maps to be obtained that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

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New maps of hurricane-induced surge levels that can occur on average once every 100- and 1000 years are drawn for Guadeloupe Island in the French West Indies, using a high-resolution wave-current coupled model and a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with historical storms. Results are found to differ significantly from past studies in wave-exposed areas, and should be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.
New maps of hurricane-induced surge levels that can occur on average once every 100- and 1000...
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