Articles | Volume 15, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1757-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.Statistical detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence
Abstract. In this communication, I improve the detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence. For this purpose, the generalized Poisson distribution and the Bayesian information criterion are introduced; the latter is used for statistical model selection. Moreover, I replace the frequently used dispersion statistics by an over-dispersion parameter which does not depend on the considered return period of storm events. These models and methods are applied in order to properly detect the over-dispersion in winter storm data for Germany, carrying out a joint estimation of the distribution models for different samples.