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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 15, issue 2 | Copyright
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 213-223, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-213-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 04 Feb 2015

Research article | 04 Feb 2015

The added value of system robustness analysis for flood risk management illustrated by a case on the IJssel River

M. J. P. Mens1,2 and F. Klijn1 M. J. P. Mens and F. Klijn
  • 1Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, the Netherlands
  • 2Twente University, Twente Water Centre, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, the Netherlands

Abstract. Decision makers in fluvial flood risk management increasingly acknowledge that they have to prepare for extreme events. Flood risk is the most common basis on which to compare flood risk-reducing strategies. To take uncertainties into account the criteria of robustness and flexibility are advocated as well. This paper discusses the added value of robustness as an additional decision criterion compared to single-value flood risk only. We do so by quantifying flood risk and system robustness for alternative system configurations of the IJssel River valley in the Netherlands. We found that robustness analysis has added value in three respects: (1) it does not require assumptions on current and future flood probabilities, since flood consequences are shown as a function of discharge; (2) it shows the sensitivity of the system to varying discharges; and (3) it supports a discussion on the acceptability of flood damage. We conclude that robustness analysis is a valuable addition to flood risk analysis in support of long-term decision-making on flood risk management.

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Decision makers in fluvial flood risk management increasingly acknowledge that they have to prepare for extreme events. Flood risk is the most common basis on which to compare flood risk-reducing strategies. This paper discusses the added value of robustness as an additional decision criterion compared to single-value flood risk only, by quantifying both metrics for the IJssel River valley in the Netherlands. Results show that robustness analysis is a valuable addition to flood risk analysis.
Decision makers in fluvial flood risk management increasingly acknowledge that they have to...
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