Articles | Volume 15, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2173-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2173-2015
Research article
 | 
01 Oct 2015
Research article |  | 01 Oct 2015

An interdisciplinary perspective on social and physical determinants of seismic risk

K.-H. E. Lin, Y.-C. Chang, G.-Y. Liu, C.-H. Chan, T.-H. Lin, and C.-H. Yeh

Abstract. While disaster studies researchers usually view risk as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, few studies have systematically examined the relationships among the various physical and socioeconomic determinants underlying disasters, and fewer have done so through seismic risk analysis. In the context of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, this study constructs three statistical models to test different determinants that affect disaster fatality at the village level, including seismic hazard, exposure of population and fragile buildings, and demographic and socioeconomic vulnerability. The Poisson regression model is used to estimate the impact of these factors on fatalities. Research results indicate that although all of the determinants have an impact on seismic fatality, some indicators of vulnerability, such as gender ratio, percentages of young and aged population, income and its standard deviation, are the important determinants deteriorating seismic risk. These findings have strong social implications for policy interventions to mitigate such disasters.

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Short summary
This study views seismic risk as a function of seismic hazard, population-building exposure, and demographic-socioeconomic vulnerability. Three statistical models are built to test determinants affecting disaster fatality at village scale; Poisson Regression is used to test the models in the case of 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. Research finding proves that seismic behavior and intensity, building fragility, vulnerable demographics and social inequality are imperative factors in the risk.
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