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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2241-2256, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2241-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
08 Oct 2015
Simplified approach for locating the critical probabilistic slip surface in limit equilibrium analysis
Y. M. Cheng1, L. Li2, and L. L. Liu1 1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China
2School of Civil Engineering, Qingdao Technological University, Qingdao, China
Abstract. This paper aims to develop a rapid and practical procedure that can locate the slip surface for a slope with the minimum reliability index for limit equilibrium analysis at the minimum expense of time. The comparative study on the reliability indices from different sample numbers using the Monte Carlo simulation method has demonstrated that the results from a large enough sample number are related to those from a small sample number with high correlation indices. This observation has been tested for many homogeneous and heterogeneous slopes under various conditions in parametric studies. Based on this observation, the reliability index for a potential slip surface can be calculated with a small sample number, and the search for the minimum reliability index and the slip surface can be determined by a heuristic optimization algorithm. Based on the comparisons between the critical deterministic and probabilistic slip surfaces for many different cases, the use of the proposed fast method in locating the critical probabilistic slip surface is found to perform well, which is suitable for normal routine analysis and design works.

Citation: Cheng, Y. M., Li, L., and Liu, L. L.: Simplified approach for locating the critical probabilistic slip surface in limit equilibrium analysis, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2241-2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2241-2015, 2015.
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Short summary
A rapid and practical procedure that can locate the slip surface for a slope with the minimum reliability index for limit equilibrium analysis at the minimum expense of time is developed. The comparative study on the reliability indices from different sample numbers using the quasi-Monte Carlo simulation method has demonstrated that the results from a large enough sample number are related to those from a small sample number with high correlation indices.
A rapid and practical procedure that can locate the slip surface for a slope with the minimum...
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