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Volume 15, issue 11 | Copyright

Special issue: Landslide Prediction & Forecasting

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2461-2472, 2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 06 Nov 2015

Research article | 06 Nov 2015

Detailed and large-scale cost/benefit analyses of landslide prevention vs. post-event actions

G. Salbego, M. Floris, E. Busnardo, M. Toaldo, and R. Genevois G. Salbego et al.
  • Dipartimento di Geoscienze, Università degli Studi di Padova, Via G. Gradenigo 6, 35100, Padova, Italia

Abstract. The main aim of this paper is to test economic benefits of landslide prevention measures vs. post-event emergency actions. To this end, detailed- and large-scale analyses were performed in a training area located in the northeastern Italian pre-Alps that was hit by an exceptional rainfall event occurred in November 2010. On the detailed scale, a landslide reactivated after 2010 event was investigated. Numerical modeling demonstrated that remedial works carried out after the landslide – water-removal intervention such as a drainage trench – could have improved slope stability if applied before its occurrence. Then, a cost/benefit analysis was employed. It defined that prevention would have been economically convenient compared to a non-preventive and passive attitude, allowing a 30 % saving relative to total costs. On the large scale, one of the most affected areas after 2010 event was considered. A susceptibility analysis was performed using a simple probabilistic model, which allowed to highlight the main landslide conditioning factors and the most hazardous and vulnerable sectors. In particular, such low-cost analysis demonstrated that almost 50 % of landslides occurred after 2010 event could be foreseen and allowed to roughly quantify benefits from regional landslide prevention. However, a large-scale approach is insufficient to carry out a quantitative cost/benefit analysis, for which a detailed case-by-case risk assessment is needed. The here proposed approaches could be used as a means of preventive soil protection in not only the investigated case study but also all those hazardous areas where preventive measures are needed.

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