Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 2.281 IF 2.281
  • IF 5-year value: 2.693 IF 5-year 2.693
  • CiteScore value: 2.43 CiteScore 2.43
  • SNIP value: 1.193 SNIP 1.193
  • SJR value: 0.965 SJR 0.965
  • IPP value: 2.31 IPP 2.31
  • h5-index value: 40 h5-index 40
  • Scimago H index value: 73 Scimago H index 73
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 487-504, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-487-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
10 Mar 2015
Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models
N. Wanders1 and H. A. J. Van Lanen2 1Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
2Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen University, the Netherlands
Abstract. Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971–2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow and to design pro-active measures.

Citation: Wanders, N. and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 487-504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-487-2015, 2015.
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario and compared to the WATCH Forcing data set. Hydrological drought characteristics (duration and severity) were calculated on a global scale. It was found that both drought duration and severity will increase in multiple regions, which will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which urges water resources managers to timely design pro-active measures.
In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by three general circulation models for...
Share