This study views seismic risk as a function of seismic hazard, population-building exposure, and demographic-socioeconomic vulnerability. Three statistical models are built to test determinants affecting disaster fatality at village scale; Poisson Regression is used to test the models in the case of 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. Research finding proves that seismic behavior and intensity, building fragility, vulnerable demographics and social inequality are imperative factors in the risk.

While the debate is on the possibility that the 2012 Emilia quakes could have been triggered by human activity, we studied the inverse relationship between hydrocarbon and seismicity. Overlapping a data set of gas and oil wells with a database of seismic sources, we found that only 1/19 wells falling on the largest faults is currently productive, while the highest ratio of productive wells is found outside the seismogenic sources. In general, productive gas wells are anti-correlated with faults.

A semi-analytical solution for the 3-D stability analysis of the ultimate uniform patched load on top of a slope is developed by the limit analysis using kinematically admissible failure mechanisms. The failure mechanism which is assumed in the analytical solution is verified by three-dimensional strength reduction analyses and laboratory model test. Furthermore, the proposed method and the results are further compared with some published results for illustrating the applicability.

A rapid and practical procedure that can locate the slip surface for a slope with the minimum reliability index for limit equilibrium analysis at the minimum expense of time is developed. The comparative study on the reliability indices from different sample numbers using the quasi-Monte Carlo simulation method has demonstrated that the results from a large enough sample number are related to those from a small sample number with high correlation indices.

This research presents a new framework for evaluating potential landslide activity in near real time. This system was implemented in Central America and the Caribbean by integrating a regional susceptibility map and satellite-based rainfall estimates into a binary decision tree, considering both daily and antecedent rainfall. The model demonstrates the capability to use free, globally available satellite products for near real-time regional landslide hazard assessment and situational awareness.

We propose a gravity model tailed to China’s national circumstances and taking into account the natural disaster impact. China’s natural disasters increase exports, but they have no significant impact on imports. Trading partner countries’ natural disasters reduce Chinese imports and exports. The impact of natural disasters on trade is asymmetric and significantly affected by other factors, like development level and land area.

In this paper an alternative to the traditional map representation of the impact of hazards on urban areas is created, so that it can cope with innovative ways of strategic planning. The paper is proposing a conceptual framework to deconstruct the map for digital disaster impact. The innovation in this concept is that it considers the representation of elements at different scales to be of different importance in the urban tissue, according to the vulnerability analysis to be performed on them.

This study looks at the effect on the maximum wave height of a tsunami when the parameters of the earthquake that generates it are varied. We show that this effect is a strong function of the distance and direction of the earthquake, the choice of fault parameter and the bathymetry of the ocean. The results of this study have implications for how uncertainty in an earthquake’s fault parameters is incorporated into both tsunami warnings and hazard assessments in the future.

We study temporal and geographical variations in the occurrence of 1466 rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, in the period 1921–2010. To evaluate the impact on the population, we compare the number of rainfall-induced landslides with the size of population in the 409 municipalities in Calabria. We find variations in yearly and geographical distribution of rainfall-induced landslides, variations in rainfall triggering conditions, and changes in the impact on the population.

The main idea behind this study was to contribute to a better understanding of coastal hazards and risks. This was achieved by proposing an approach that combines coastal flooding scenarios with different scenarios of urban growth. Once used jointly, these two methodologies can help to identify flood-prone areas that have a high potential for future urbanization, which makes this combination particularly useful for coastal managers and planners.

We investigate 1-day precipitation extremes in Sicily and their frequency distribution, based on a dense data set of high-quality, homogenized station records (1921-2005). Return levels corresponding to 10-, 50- and 100-year periods are produced on a high-resolution grid using a variant of regional frequency analysis combined with regression techniques. The results, which clearly reflect the complexity of this region, may be useful in the context of extreme precipitation risk assessment.

The paper proposes an approach to prepare a multi-date landslide inventory for the Ubaye valley (French Alps), a complex mountainous area affected by several landslide types with different degrees of activity. The inventory covering the period 1956-2010 have been analysed in order to quantify the uncertainties associated to the mapping, to measure the evolution of morphological indicators and to estimate temporal occurrence. Evolution of landslide activity is compared to other inventory sources.

The Virunga area in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 1 million inhabitants, has to permanently cope with the threat posed by the active Nyamulagira and Nyiragongo volcanoes. During the past century, Nyamulagira erupted at intervals of about every 3 years – mostly in the form of lava flows – at least 30 times. In order to identify a useful tool for hazard assessment at the Goma Volcanological Observatory, we tested VORIS, a freely available software (www.gvb-csic.es).

This paper introduces a new non-stationary calculation of characteristic earthquake probability, motivated and derived from the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. A total of six parameters are present in the model, including earthquake return period, fault-plane strength parameters, rock unit weight, focal depth, and the level of uncertainty of annual stress increment. In addition to the detailed derivations in the algorithm, a model demonstration is also presented in the paper.

The supraglacial lake basin was mapped by DGPS and the SFM approach from terrestrial photographs. The maximum filling capacity of the lake was estimated, with a maximum discharge of 77.8 m3/s, calculated using an empirical relation. The flooded area in the valley was delineated by employing a raster-based hydraulic model. A coincidence of the GLOF events with high values of cumulative above-zero temperature and precipitation calculated from the HAR data set was revealed.