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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1145-1155, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1145-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
20 May 2016
Strong motion PGA prediction for southwestern China from small earthquake records
Zhengru Tao1, Xiaxin Tao2,1, and Anping Cui1 1Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin, China
2Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China
Abstract. For regions without enough strong ground motion records, a seismology-based method is adopted to predict motion PGA (peak ground acceleration) values on rock sites with parameters from small earthquake data, recorded by regional broadband digital monitoring networks. Sichuan and Yunnan regions in southwestern China are selected for this case study. Five regional parameters of source spectrum and attenuation are acquired from a joint inversion by the micro-genetic algorithm. PGAs are predicted for earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) 5.0, 6.0, and 7.0 respectively and a series of distances. The result is compared with limited regional strong motion data in the corresponding interval Mw ± 0.5. Most of the results ideally pass through the data clusters, except the case of Mw7.0 in the Sichuan region, which shows an obvious slow attenuation due to a lack of observed data from larger earthquakes (Mw ≥  7.0). For further application, the parameters are adopted in strong motion synthesis at two near-fault stations during the great Wenchuan Earthquake M8.0 in 2008.

Citation: Tao, Z., Tao, X., and Cui, A.: Strong motion PGA prediction for southwestern China from small earthquake records, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1145-1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1145-2016, 2016.
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Short summary
For regions with few strong motion records, a seismology-based method is developed to predict PGAs with parameters from small earthquake data, recorded by regional monitoring networks, for Sichuan and Yunnan regions, China. The results are compared with limited strong motion data. Most fit well, except the case of Mw7.0 in Sichuan, since there are no observed data from larger events. The parameters are adopted in strong motion synthesis at two near-fault stations during the Wenchuan Earthquake.
For regions with few strong motion records, a seismology-based method is developed to predict...
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