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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 16, issue 7 | Copyright
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1617-1622, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1617-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Brief communication 19 Jul 2016

Brief communication | 19 Jul 2016

Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

Fred Fokko Hattermann1, Shaochun Huang1, Olaf Burghoff2, Peter Hoffmann1, and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz1,3 Fred Fokko Hattermann et al.
  • 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
  • 2German Insurance Association (GDV), Berlin, Germany
  • 3Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznan, Poland

Abstract. In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in a future warmer climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one global climate model (GCM) was used as a large-scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCMs are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modelling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate drivers show trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

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We report that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in Germany in a future warmer climate. The general significance of the study is supported by the fact that the outcome of an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) was used as a climate driver for a hydrological model considering more than 3000 river basins in Germany.
We report that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in Germany in a...
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