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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1699-1718, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1699-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
29 Jul 2016
Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain
Jesica Tamara Castillo-Rodríguez1, Ignacio Escuder-Bueno1,2, Sara Perales-Momparler3, and Juan Ramón Porta-Sancho4 1Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain
2iPresas Risk Analysis, Avda. del Puerto 180 1B, 46023 Valencia, Spain
3Green Blue Management, Avda. del Puerto 180 1B, 46023 Valencia, Spain
4Oliva City Council, Pl. Ajuntament 1, 46780 Oliva, Spain
Abstract. This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequences and using event tree modelling for risk calculation. The study area is the city of Oliva, located on the eastern coast of Spain. Results from risk modelling have been used to inform local action planning and to assess the benefits of structural and non-structural risk reduction measures. Results show the potential impact on risk reduction of flood defences and improved warning communication schemes through local action planning: societal flood risk (in terms of annual expected affected population) would be reduced up to 51 % by combining both structural and non-structural measures. In addition, the effect of seasonal population variability is analysed (annual expected affected population ranges from 82 to 107 %, compared with the current situation, depending on occupancy rates in hotels and campsites). Results highlight the need for robust and standardized methods for urban flood risk analysis replicability at regional and national scale.

Citation: Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T., Escuder-Bueno, I., Perales-Momparler, S., and Porta-Sancho, J. R.: Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1699-1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1699-2016, 2016.
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Short summary
This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative flood risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The conducted research work aims at providing a framework for local flood risk analysis and to support risk-informed decision-making (e.g. urban planning and development, flood risk management, civil protection). This article shows the added value of a risk-informed perspective, applied to a real case study in Spain.
This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative flood risk analysis to...
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